no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Elijah Sarratt · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
HOU win probability
ours 56%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 22 – HOU 24 · HOU -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
HOU -1.25
HOU −2.0
9/10
—at the line
| book | HOU | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 3:45 PM
BAL · 9
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Elijah Sarratt WR5 | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Danny Pinter | C | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
HOU · 6
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Red zoneHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU 51% #31
BAL #7 55%
HOU
Pass attackBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL -0.04 #24
HOU #1 -0.19
BAL
Run gameHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU -0.08 #30
BAL #7 -0.05
HOU
Pass yardsBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL 193 #28
HOU #7 205
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU 2.0 #12
BAL #28 1.8
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU 233 #14
BAL #29 259
BAL
Run block vs frontHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU 111 #23
BAL #8 106
BAL
3rd downHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU 38% #24
BAL #10 38%
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
HOU
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL 2.5 #20
HOU #9 2.6
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU
3rd downBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL 41% #15
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · BAL defense
HOU +0.04 #15
BAL #21 +0.07
HOU
Red zoneBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL 60% #22
HOU #16 63%
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL +0.10 #2
HOU #8 -0.05
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · HOU defense
BAL 162 #1
HOU #3 93
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
HOU DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +23
#1 -0.19
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +21
#7 205
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#4 94
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#7 2.8
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +8
#7 37%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
rush +11
HOUpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#24
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
BALrun block
even
HOUrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#148
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#185
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#58
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +23
#7 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +15
#29 259
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +12
#10 107
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#28 1.8
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +14
#10 38%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +24
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
line +16
BALpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#71
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#86
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
HOUrun block
front +15
BALrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#365
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#61
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#57
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#327
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#201
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106