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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 3 – 1 HOU
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Elijah Sarratt · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman    HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
HOU win probability
ours 56% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 22 – HOU 24 · HOU -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Texansspread · margin, last 10
HOU -1.25
HOU −2.0
9/10
at the line
bookHOUBAL
DK
CZR
Texanstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 3:45 PM
BAL · 9
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Elijah Sarratt WR5
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Danny PinterCOUTKnee · IR
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
HOU · 6
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Red zoneHOU offense · BAL defense DEF +24 HOU 51% #31 BAL #7 55%
HOU Pass attackBAL offense · HOU defense DEF +23 BAL -0.04 #24 HOU #1 -0.19
BAL Run gameHOU offense · BAL defense DEF +23 HOU -0.08 #30 BAL #7 -0.05
HOU Pass yardsBAL offense · HOU defense DEF +21 BAL 193 #28 HOU #7 205
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · BAL defense LINE +16 HOU 2.0 #12 BAL #28 1.8
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · BAL defense OFF +15 HOU 233 #14 BAL #29 259
BAL Run block vs frontHOU offense · BAL defense FRONT +15 HOU 111 #23 BAL #8 106
BAL 3rd downHOU offense · BAL defense DEF +14 HOU 38% #24 BAL #10 38%
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
HOU Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · HOU defense RUSH +11 BAL 2.5 #20 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU 3rd downBAL offense · HOU defense DEF +8 BAL 41% #15 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · BAL defense OFF +6 HOU +0.04 #15 BAL #21 +0.07
HOU Red zoneBAL offense · HOU defense DEF +6 BAL 60% #22 HOU #16 63%
BAL Run gameBAL offense · HOU defense OFF +6 BAL +0.10 #2 HOU #8 -0.05
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · HOU defense LINE +2 BAL 162 #1 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

HOU DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 HOU DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack DEF +23 #1 -0.19
+0.10 #2 Run game even #8 -0.05
193 #28 Pass yards DEF +21 #7 205
157 #2 Rush yards even #4 94
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #7 2.8
41% #15 3rd down DEF +8 #7 37%
60% #22 Red zone even #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro rush +11 HOUpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#24
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
BALrun block even HOUrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#148
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#185
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#58
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93