Baltimore Ravens
@
Houston Texans
MODEL HOU 60%
Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00
· Reliant Stadium
· astroturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 3 – 1 HOU
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
HOU OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +23
#1 -0.19
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +21
#7 205
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#4 94
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#7 2.8
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +8
#7 37%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#16 63%
HOU OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +23
#7 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +15
#29 259
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +12
#10 107
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +21
#30 1.8
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +14
#10 38%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +24
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 1.8
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #1 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #8 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #1 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #1 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #1 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #1 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #21 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #7 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #21 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #21 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #21 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #21 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.