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Week 12 · 2026-11-26 · 20:20 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 3 – 5 BUF
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out    BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 60% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 21 – BUF 25 · BUF -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Billsspread · margin, last 10
BUF -2.75
BUF −3.3
6/9
at the line
bookBUFKAN
CZR
SCORE
DK
FD
Billstotal · points in the game, last 10
50.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 8:00 PM
KC · 5
Jeff CaldwellWROUTKnee · IR
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
BUF · 11
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Skyler BellWROUTCoach's Decision
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
Mike DannaDEOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
Zane DurantDTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGOUTCoach's Decision
Jude BowryOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jalon KilgoreSOUTCoach's Decision
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · KC defense OFF +25 BUF 46% #3 KC #28 44%
KC Run gameKC offense · BUF defense OFF +24 KC +0.03 #6 BUF #30 +0.09
BUF Pass yardsKC offense · BUF defense DEF +15 KC 232 #16 BUF #1 170
BUF Run gameBUF offense · KC defense OFF +10 BUF +0.11 #1 KC #11 -0.04
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · KC defense OFF +9 BUF +0.16 #6 KC #15 -0.00
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · KC defense LINE +8 BUF 160 #1 KC #9 106
BUF Pass attackKC offense · BUF defense DEF +7 KC +0.04 #14 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · KC defense LINE +7 BUF 2.4 #19 KC #26 1.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
KC Pass yardsBUF offense · KC defense DEF +5 BUF 234 #13 KC #8 205
BUF Pass pro vs rushKC offense · BUF defense RUSH +3 KC 2.8 #22 BUF #19 2.1
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · KC defense OFF +3 BUF 72% #3 KC #6 55%
KC Run block vs frontKC offense · BUF defense LINE +3 KC 107 #25 BUF #28 136
KC 3rd downKC offense · BUF defense OFF +1 KC 38% #23 BUF #24 42%
BUF Red zoneKC offense · BUF defense DEF +1 KC 58% #25 BUF #24 68%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BUF DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC BUF DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack even #7 -0.11
+0.03 #6 Run game OFF +24 #30 +0.09
232 #16 Pass yards DEF +15 #1 170
107 #25 Rush yards even #28 136
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush even #19 2.1
38% #23 3rd down even #24 42%
58% #25 Red zone even #24 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro even BUFpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Bradley Chubb OLB 8.5 sk#22
Greg Rousseau LB 7.0 sk#41
Ed Oliver DT 3.0 sk#157
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
KCrun block even BUFrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
T.J. Sanders LDE 1.0 tfl#474
Deone Walker NT 8.0 tfl#79
Ed Oliver RDE 7.0 tfl#92
Greg Rousseau WLB 6.0 tfl#144
Dorian Williams LILB 1.0 tfl#538
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136