Kansas City Chiefs
@
Buffalo Bills
MODEL BUF 61%
Week 12 · 2026-11-26 · 20:20
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 3 – 5 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
BUF OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +24
#30 +0.09
232 #16
Pass yards
DEF +15
#1 170
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#28 136
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
38% #23
3rd down
even
#24 42%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +9
#15 -0.00
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +10
#11 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#8 205
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +8
#9 106
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +25
#28 44%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 1.9
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #7 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #30 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #7 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #7 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #7 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #7 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #15 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #11 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #15 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #15 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #15 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #15 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.