no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 60%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 21 – BUF 25 · BUF -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BUF -2.75
BUF −3.3
6/9
—at the line
| book | BUF | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
50.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 8:00 PM
KC · 5
| Jeff Caldwell | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
BUF · 11
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · KC defense
BUF 46% #3
KC #28 44%
KC
Run gameKC offense · BUF defense
KC +0.03 #6
BUF #30 +0.09
BUF
Pass yardsKC offense · BUF defense
KC 232 #16
BUF #1 170
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · KC defense
BUF +0.11 #1
KC #11 -0.04
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · KC defense
BUF +0.16 #6
KC #15 -0.00
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · KC defense
BUF 160 #1
KC #9 106
BUF
Pass attackKC offense · BUF defense
KC +0.04 #14
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · KC defense
BUF 2.4 #19
KC #26 1.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
KC
Pass yardsBUF offense · KC defense
BUF 234 #13
KC #8 205
BUF
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · BUF defense
KC 2.8 #22
BUF #19 2.1
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · KC defense
BUF 72% #3
KC #6 55%
KC
Run block vs frontKC offense · BUF defense
KC 107 #25
BUF #28 136
KC
3rd downKC offense · BUF defense
KC 38% #23
BUF #24 42%
BUF
Red zoneKC offense · BUF defense
KC 58% #25
BUF #24 68%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +24
#30 +0.09
232 #16
Pass yards
DEF +15
#1 170
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#28 136
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
38% #23
3rd down
even
#24 42%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
even
BUFpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#22
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#41
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#157
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
KCrun block
even
BUFrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#474
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#79
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#92
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#144
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#538
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
KC DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +9
#15 -0.00
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +10
#11 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#8 205
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +8
#9 106
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +25
#28 44%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#44
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#55
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#202
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
BUFrun block
line +8
KCrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#40
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#26
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#374
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#38
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 106