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Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 12 · 2026-11-26 · 13:00 · Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 3 – 7 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 62% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 24 – DET 28 · DET -4.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET -2.5
DET −4.0
3/9
at the line
bookDETCHI
CZR
FD
DK
SCORE
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5opened 53
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
FD
SCORE
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass yardsDET offense · CHI defense OFF +19 DET 269 #3 CHI #22 239
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · CHI defense LINE +17 DET 125 #10 CHI #27 133
DET Pass attackDET offense · CHI defense OFF +14 DET +0.17 #4 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Run gameCHI offense · DET defense OFF +14 CHI +0.08 #4 DET #18 -0.01
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · DET defense OFF +13 CHI 66% #10 DET #23 68%
DET Red zoneDET offense · CHI defense OFF +13 DET 70% #5 CHI #18 65%
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · DET defense LINE +10 CHI 161 #2 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
CHI Pass yardsCHI offense · DET defense OFF +9 CHI 235 #12 DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · CHI defense LINE +5 DET 2.1 #15 CHI #20 2.0
CHI Run gameDET offense · CHI defense DEF +5 DET -0.04 #24 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · DET defense OFF +4 CHI +0.08 #10 DET #14 -0.01
DET 3rd downCHI offense · DET defense DEF +2 CHI 43% #11 DET #9 37%
DET Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · DET defense RUSH +2 CHI 1.5 #4 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
CHI 3rd downDET offense · CHI defense DEF +1 DET 39% #20 CHI #19 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DET DEFENSE CHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CHI offense against what it runs into

CHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DET DEFENSE

CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.

+0.08 #10 Pass attack even #14 -0.01
+0.08 #4 Run game OFF +14 #18 -0.01
235 #12 Pass yards OFF +9 #21 237
144 #3 Rush yards OFF +11 #14 115
1.4 #3 Pass pro vs rush even #6 2.8
43% #11 3rd down even #9 37%
66% #10 Red zone OFF +13 #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CHIpass pro even DETpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#100
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
CHIrun block line +10 DETrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#11
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#369
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#443
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#230
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#132
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111