New England Patriots
@
Los Angeles Chargers
MODEL LAC 51%
Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 20:20
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 2 – 2 LAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
LAC OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +8
#9 -0.09
+0.01 #13
Run game
DEF +9
#4 -0.07
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#4 195
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#10 2.6
44% #6
3rd down
even
#4 35%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +15
#11 -0.06
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#9 207
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#6 102
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
46% #4
3rd down
even
#11 39%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.0
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #9 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #4 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #9 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #9 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #9 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #9 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #11 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #15 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #11 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #11 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #11 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #11 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.