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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 20:20 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 2 – 2 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 50% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 22 – LAC 21 · NE -0.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -2.25
LAC +0.0
6/10
at the line
bookLACNE
DK
CZR
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass attackLAC offense · NE defense DEF +15 LAC -0.05 #26 NE #11 -0.06
NE Run block vs frontLAC offense · NE defense FRONT +10 LAC 117 #16 NE #6 101
LAC Pass pro vs rushNE offense · LAC defense RUSH +9 NE 2.9 #24 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
NE Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · NE defense RUSH +9 LAC 3.4 #31 NE #22 2.0
LAC Run gameNE offense · LAC defense DEF +9 NE +0.01 #13 LAC #4 -0.07
NE Pass attackNE offense · LAC defense OFF +8 NE +0.29 #1 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · NE defense OFF +7 LAC 46% #4 NE #11 39%
NE Pass yardsLAC offense · NE defense DEF +6 LAC 233 #15 NE #9 207
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC Red zoneNE offense · LAC defense DEF +6 NE 66% #9 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameLAC offense · NE defense OFF +4 LAC +0.02 #11 NE #15 -0.03
NE Red zoneLAC offense · NE defense DEF +3 LAC 52% #30 NE #27 69%
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · LAC defense LINE +3 NE 127 #6 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC 3rd downNE offense · LAC defense DEF +2 NE 44% #6 LAC #4 35%
LAC Pass yardsNE offense · LAC defense DEF +0 NE 262 #4 LAC #4 195

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

LAC DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +8 #9 -0.09
+0.01 #13 Run game DEF +9 #4 -0.07
262 #4 Pass yards even #4 195
129 #6 Rush yards even #8 105
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #10 2.6
44% #6 3rd down even #4 35%
66% #9 Red zone even #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro rush +9 LACpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#59
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
NErun block even LACrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#266
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#288
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#166
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#182
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107