no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 50%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 22 – LAC 21 · NE -0.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -2.25
LAC +0.0
6/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Pass attackLAC offense · NE defense
LAC -0.05 #26
NE #11 -0.06
NE
Run block vs frontLAC offense · NE defense
LAC 117 #16
NE #6 101
LAC
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · LAC defense
NE 2.9 #24
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
NE
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · NE defense
LAC 3.4 #31
NE #22 2.0
LAC
Run gameNE offense · LAC defense
NE +0.01 #13
LAC #4 -0.07
NE
Pass attackNE offense · LAC defense
NE +0.29 #1
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · NE defense
LAC 46% #4
NE #11 39%
NE
Pass yardsLAC offense · NE defense
LAC 233 #15
NE #9 207
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC
Red zoneNE offense · LAC defense
NE 66% #9
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · NE defense
LAC +0.02 #11
NE #15 -0.03
NE
Red zoneLAC offense · NE defense
LAC 52% #30
NE #27 69%
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · LAC defense
NE 127 #6
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
3rd downNE offense · LAC defense
NE 44% #6
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Pass yardsNE offense · LAC defense
NE 262 #4
LAC #4 195
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +8
#9 -0.09
+0.01 #13
Run game
DEF +9
#4 -0.07
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#4 195
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#10 2.6
44% #6
3rd down
even
#4 35%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +9
LACpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#56
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#61
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
NErun block
even
LACrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#262
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#323
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#192
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#182
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +15
#11 -0.06
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#9 207
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#6 102
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
46% #4
3rd down
even
#11 39%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +9
NEpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#43
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#109
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
LACrun block
front +10
NErun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#234
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#178
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#78
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#275
Christian Elliss LILB
—
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101