no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 56%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 22 – SF 24 · SF -1.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -1.5opened +0
SF −1.9
8/10
—at the line
| book | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 6:00 PM
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · SF defense
SEA 1.7 #6
SF #32 0.9
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · SF defense
SEA +0.11 #8
SF #25 +0.11
SEA
Run gameSF offense · SEA defense
SF -0.00 #18
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Run block vs frontSF offense · SEA defense
SF 114 #20
SEA #4 94
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · SF defense
SEA 239 #9
SF #23 242
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · SF defense
SEA 43% #10
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · SEA defense
SF 254 #6
SEA #12 213
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · SEA defense
SF 1.3 #2
SEA #6 2.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
SF
Red zoneSEA offense · SF defense
SEA 62% #18
SF #14 62%
SEA
Red zoneSF offense · SEA defense
SF 68% #8
SEA #4 54%
SF
Run gameSEA offense · SF defense
SEA -0.05 #26
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Pass attackSF offense · SEA defense
SF +0.16 #7
SEA #8 -0.10
SF
Run block vs frontSEA offense · SF defense
SEA 120 #11
SF #10 110
SEA
3rd downSF offense · SEA defense
SF 51% #1
SEA #1 33%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +17
#25 +0.11
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +14
#23 242
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +27
#32 1.2
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +10
#20 41%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +26
SFpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#152
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#262
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
SEArun block
even
SFrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#367
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#136
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#386
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
-0.00 #18
Run game
DEF +17
#1 -0.15
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#12 213
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +21
#3 92
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
51% #1
3rd down
even
#1 33%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#42
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#52
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
SFrun block
front +16
SEArun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#62
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#354
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#38
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94