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Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 16:25 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 5 – 7 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 56% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 22 – SF 24 · SF -1.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -1.5opened +0
SF −1.9
8/10
at the line
bookSFSEA
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 6:00 PM
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · SF defense LINE +26 SEA 1.7 #6 SF #32 0.9
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · SF defense OFF +17 SEA +0.11 #8 SF #25 +0.11
SEA Run gameSF offense · SEA defense DEF +17 SF -0.00 #18 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Run block vs frontSF offense · SEA defense FRONT +16 SF 114 #20 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · SF defense OFF +14 SEA 239 #9 SF #23 242
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · SF defense OFF +10 SEA 43% #10 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · SEA defense OFF +6 SF 254 #6 SEA #12 213
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · SEA defense LINE +4 SF 1.3 #2 SEA #6 2.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
SF Red zoneSEA offense · SF defense DEF +4 SEA 62% #18 SF #14 62%
SEA Red zoneSF offense · SEA defense DEF +4 SF 68% #8 SEA #4 54%
SF Run gameSEA offense · SF defense DEF +4 SEA -0.05 #26 SF #22 +0.01
SF Pass attackSF offense · SEA defense OFF +1 SF +0.16 #7 SEA #8 -0.10
SF Run block vs frontSEA offense · SF defense FRONT +1 SEA 120 #11 SF #10 110
SEA 3rd downSF offense · SEA defense DEF +0 SF 51% #1 SEA #1 33%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

SF DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack OFF +17 #25 +0.11
-0.05 #26 Run game even #22 +0.01
239 #9 Pass yards OFF +14 #23 242
123 #11 Rush yards even #11 108
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush OFF +27 #32 1.2
43% #10 3rd down OFF +10 #20 41%
62% #18 Red zone even #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro line +26 SFpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#152
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#262
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
SEArun block even SFrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#367
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#136
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#386
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110