no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
CIN win probability
ours 62%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 22 – CIN 26 · CIN -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CIN -6.5
CIN −4.1
3/10
—at the line
| book | CIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CIN defense
NO 3.2 #28
CIN #12 2.4
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · CIN defense
NO 237 #10
CIN #25 246
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · NO defense
CIN 76% #1
NO #15 62%
NO
Pass attackCIN offense · NO defense
CIN -0.03 #23
NO #12 -0.05
NO
3rd downNO offense · CIN defense
NO 40% #19
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · NO defense
CIN 1.9 #10
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
CIN
Red zoneNO offense · CIN defense
NO 50% #32
CIN #26 69%
NO
Run block vs frontCIN offense · NO defense
CIN 95 #29
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #10
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
NO
Run gameCIN offense · NO defense
CIN +0.02 #8
NO #2 -0.07
NO
Pass yardsCIN offense · NO defense
CIN 250 #7
NO #5 196
CIN
Run gameNO offense · CIN defense
NO -0.10 #31
CIN #29 +0.09
NO
Pass attackNO offense · CIN defense
NO -0.08 #27
CIN #28 +0.16
NO
3rd downCIN offense · NO defense
CIN 44% #5
NO #5 36%
CIN
Run block vs frontNO offense · CIN defense
NO 94 #30
CIN #30 139
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.10 #31
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +15
#25 246
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#32 147
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +8
#27 44%
50% #32
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +16
CINpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#58
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#101
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#126
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
NOrun block
even
CINrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#230
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#235
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#98
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#126
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#276
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +11
#12 -0.05
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#5 196
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +10
#19 121
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
44% #5
3rd down
even
#5 36%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +14
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#54
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
CINrun block
even
NOrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#10
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#409
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#150
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#42
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127