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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 0 – 1 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
CIN win probability
ours 62% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 22 – CIN 26 · CIN -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -6.5
CIN −4.1
3/10
at the line
bookCINNO
DK
CZR
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CIN defense RUSH +16 NO 3.2 #28 CIN #12 2.4
NO Pass yardsNO offense · CIN defense OFF +15 NO 237 #10 CIN #25 246
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · NO defense OFF +14 CIN 76% #1 NO #15 62%
NO Pass attackCIN offense · NO defense DEF +11 CIN -0.03 #23 NO #12 -0.05
NO 3rd downNO offense · CIN defense OFF +8 NO 40% #19 CIN #27 44%
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · NO defense LINE +6 CIN 1.9 #10 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
CIN Red zoneNO offense · CIN defense DEF +6 NO 50% #32 CIN #26 69%
NO Run block vs frontCIN offense · NO defense FRONT +6 CIN 95 #29 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #10
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
NO Run gameCIN offense · NO defense DEF +6 CIN +0.02 #8 NO #2 -0.07
NO Pass yardsCIN offense · NO defense DEF +2 CIN 250 #7 NO #5 196
CIN Run gameNO offense · CIN defense DEF +2 NO -0.10 #31 CIN #29 +0.09
NO Pass attackNO offense · CIN defense OFF +1 NO -0.08 #27 CIN #28 +0.16
NO 3rd downCIN offense · NO defense DEF +0 CIN 44% #5 NO #5 36%
CIN Run block vs frontNO offense · CIN defense FRONT +0 NO 94 #30 CIN #30 139

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CIN DEFENSE NO OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NO offense against what it runs into

NO OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE
-0.08 #27 Pass attack even #28 +0.16
-0.10 #31 Run game even #29 +0.09
237 #10 Pass yards OFF +15 #25 246
94 #28 Rush yards even #32 147
2.9 #25 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
40% #19 3rd down OFF +8 #27 44%
50% #32 Red zone even #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NOpass pro rush +16 CINpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#58
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#101
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#126
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
NOrun block even CINrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#230
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#235
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#98
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#126
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#276
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139