New Orleans Saints
@
Cincinnati Bengals
MODEL CIN 59%
Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 0 – 1 CIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
CIN OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.10 #31
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +15
#25 246
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#32 147
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +8
#27 44%
50% #32
Red zone
even
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +11
#12 -0.05
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#5 196
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +10
#19 121
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
44% #5
3rd down
even
#5 36%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +14
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.6
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #28 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #29 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #28 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #28 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #28 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #28 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #12 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #2 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #12 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #12 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #12 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #12 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.