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Week 12 · 2026-11-27 · 15:00 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 0 – 2 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
PIT win probability
ours 52% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 22 – PIT 22 · PIT -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT +1.5
PIT −0.6
6/10
at the line
bookPITDEN
FD
DK
SCORE
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
FD
CZR
SCORE
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Run block vs frontPIT offense · DEN defense FRONT +24 PIT 98 #26 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · PIT defense OFF +16 DEN 43% #9 PIT #25 43%
DEN Pass yardsDEN offense · PIT defense OFF +13 DEN 231 #17 PIT #30 261
DEN 3rd downPIT offense · DEN defense DEF +12 PIT 41% #14 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass yardsPIT offense · DEN defense DEF +11 PIT 214 #22 DEN #11 212
DEN Pass attackPIT offense · DEN defense DEF +10 PIT +0.03 #16 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Red zonePIT offense · DEN defense DEF +10 PIT 66% #11 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · PIT defense OFF +8 DEN +0.08 #9 PIT #17 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DEN Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · DEN defense RUSH +7 PIT 1.9 #8 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
PIT Red zoneDEN offense · PIT defense DEF +6 DEN 63% #15 PIT #9 58%
DEN Run gameDEN offense · PIT defense OFF +4 DEN +0.00 #16 PIT #20 +0.00
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · PIT defense LINE +1 DEN 1.4 #3 PIT #4 3.1
PIT Run block vs frontDEN offense · PIT defense FRONT +1 DEN 119 #14 PIT #13 114
DEN Run gamePIT offense · DEN defense DEF +0 PIT +0.02 #10 DEN #10 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

PIT DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +8 #17 +0.03
+0.00 #16 Run game even #20 +0.00
231 #17 Pass yards OFF +13 #30 261
119 #16 Rush yards even #13 113
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush even #5 2.8
43% #9 3rd down OFF +16 #25 43%
63% #15 Red zone even #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro even PITpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#29
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#39
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
DENrun block even PITrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#494
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#136
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#52
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#45
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#140
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114