Denver Broncos
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
MODEL PIT 51%
Week 12 · 2026-11-27 · 15:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 0 – 2 PIT
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
PIT OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +8
#17 +0.03
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
231 #17
Pass yards
OFF +13
#30 261
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#13 113
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +16
#25 43%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +10
#6 -0.12
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +11
#11 212
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +24
#2 91
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#1 4.0
41% #14
3rd down
DEF +12
#2 34%
66% #11
Red zone
DEF +10
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 4.0
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #17 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #20 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #17 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #17 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #17 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #17 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #6 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #10 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #6 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #6 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #6 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #6 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.