no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
PIT win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 22 – PIT 22 · PIT -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT +1.5
PIT −0.6
6/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
39.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| CZR | ||
| SCORE |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Run block vs frontPIT offense · DEN defense
PIT 98 #26
DEN #2 91
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN 43% #9
PIT #25 43%
DEN
Pass yardsDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN 231 #17
PIT #30 261
DEN
3rd downPIT offense · DEN defense
PIT 41% #14
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass yardsPIT offense · DEN defense
PIT 214 #22
DEN #11 212
DEN
Pass attackPIT offense · DEN defense
PIT +0.03 #16
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Red zonePIT offense · DEN defense
PIT 66% #11
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN +0.08 #9
PIT #17 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DEN
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · DEN defense
PIT 1.9 #8
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
PIT
Red zoneDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN 63% #15
PIT #9 58%
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN +0.00 #16
PIT #20 +0.00
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN 1.4 #3
PIT #4 3.1
PIT
Run block vs frontDEN offense · PIT defense
DEN 119 #14
PIT #13 114
DEN
Run gamePIT offense · DEN defense
PIT +0.02 #10
DEN #10 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +8
#17 +0.03
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
231 #17
Pass yards
OFF +13
#30 261
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#13 113
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +16
#25 43%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
even
PITpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#29
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#39
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
DENrun block
even
PITrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#494
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#136
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#52
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#45
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#140
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +10
#6 -0.12
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +11
#11 212
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +24
#2 91
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#1 4.0
41% #14
3rd down
DEF +12
#2 34%
66% #11
Red zone
DEF +10
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
even
DENpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#25
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#41
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
PITrun block
front +24
DENrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#243
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#232
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#184
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#181
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#324
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91