Atlanta Falcons
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 61%
Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 2 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
MIN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
DEF +19
#2 -0.15
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +17
#6 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +18
#2 178
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +13
#21 124
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +27
#3 35%
65% #13
Red zone
DEF +11
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +17
#13 -0.03
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +15
#15 222
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#24 126
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +29
#2 3.4
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +16
#15 40%
61% #21
Red zone
DEF +8
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 3.4
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #2 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #6 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #2 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #2 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #2 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #2 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #13 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #25 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #13 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #13 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #13 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #13 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.