no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz
MIN win probability
ours 78%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 16 – MIN 26 · MIN -9.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIN -4
MIN −9.9
4/10
—at the line
| book | MIN | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 11
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
| |||
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Malcolm DeWalt IV | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Christian Harris | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ethan Onianwa | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Norton | OT | OUT | Foot |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
MIN · 11
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN 3.5 #31
ATL #2 3.4
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
MIN
3rd downATL offense · MIN defense
ATL 34% #30
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass attackATL offense · MIN defense
ATL -0.01 #21
MIN #2 -0.15
MIN
Pass yardsATL offense · MIN defense
ATL 218 #20
MIN #2 178
ATL
Pass attackMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN -0.19 #30
ATL #13 -0.03
MIN
Run gameATL offense · MIN defense
ATL -0.03 #23
MIN #6 -0.05
ATL
3rd downMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN 32% #31
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Pass yardsMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN 189 #30
ATL #15 222
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · MIN defense
ATL 126 #8
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN
Red zoneATL offense · MIN defense
ATL 65% #13
MIN #2 49%
ATL
Red zoneMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN 61% #21
ATL #13 62%
MIN
Run gameMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN -0.01 #20
ATL #25 +0.03
MIN
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · MIN defense
ATL 1.5 #5
MIN #4 2.9
ATL
Run block vs frontMIN offense · ATL defense
MIN 108 #24
ATL #24 126
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
MIN DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
DEF +19
#2 -0.15
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +17
#6 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +18
#2 178
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +13
#21 124
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +27
#3 35%
65% #13
Red zone
DEF +11
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
MINpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#43
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#46
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
ATLrun block
line +13
MINrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2025
ATL DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +17
#13 -0.03
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +15
#15 222
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#24 126
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +29
#2 3.4
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +16
#15 40%
61% #21
Red zone
DEF +8
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +29
ATLpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#22
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#51
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.4
MINrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#117
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#152
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#33
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#451
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 126