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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 2 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out    MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz
MIN win probability
ours 78% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 16 – MIN 26 · MIN -9.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN -4
MIN −9.9
4/10
at the line
bookMINATL
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 11
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Malcolm DeWalt IVCBOUTCoach's Decision
Christian HarrisLBOUTCoach's Decision
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Ethan OnianwaOTOUTCoach's Decision
Storm NortonOTOUTFoot
Da'Shawn HandDTQUESTIONABLEKnee
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
MIN · 11
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · ATL defense RUSH +29 MIN 3.5 #31 ATL #2 3.4 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
MIN 3rd downATL offense · MIN defense DEF +27 ATL 34% #30 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass attackATL offense · MIN defense DEF +19 ATL -0.01 #21 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Pass yardsATL offense · MIN defense DEF +18 ATL 218 #20 MIN #2 178
ATL Pass attackMIN offense · ATL defense DEF +17 MIN -0.19 #30 ATL #13 -0.03
MIN Run gameATL offense · MIN defense DEF +17 ATL -0.03 #23 MIN #6 -0.05
ATL 3rd downMIN offense · ATL defense DEF +16 MIN 32% #31 ATL #15 40%
ATL Pass yardsMIN offense · ATL defense DEF +15 MIN 189 #30 ATL #15 222
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · MIN defense LINE +13 ATL 126 #8 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Red zoneATL offense · MIN defense DEF +11 ATL 65% #13 MIN #2 49%
ATL Red zoneMIN offense · ATL defense DEF +8 MIN 61% #21 ATL #13 62%
MIN Run gameMIN offense · ATL defense OFF +5 MIN -0.01 #20 ATL #25 +0.03
MIN Pass pro vs rushATL offense · MIN defense RUSH +1 ATL 1.5 #5 MIN #4 2.9
ATL Run block vs frontMIN offense · ATL defense FRONT +0 MIN 108 #24 ATL #24 126

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

MIN DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 MIN DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack DEF +19 #2 -0.15
-0.03 #23 Run game DEF +17 #6 -0.05
218 #20 Pass yards DEF +18 #2 178
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +13 #21 124
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush even #4 2.9
34% #30 3rd down DEF +27 #3 35%
65% #13 Red zone DEF +11 #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro even MINpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#43
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#46
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
ATLrun block line +13 MINrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#69
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124