no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 62%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 23 – IND 27 · IND -3.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
IND -2.75
IND −3.9
1/10
—at the line
| book | IND | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Run gameIND offense · NYG defense
IND +0.09 #3
NYG #32 +0.17
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · NYG defense
IND 1.8 #7
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
IND
Red zoneNYG offense · IND defense
NYG 59% #23
IND #5 55%
IND
Red zoneIND offense · NYG defense
IND 68% #7
NYG #22 68%
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · IND defense
NYG 133 #5
IND #17 117
NYG
Pass yardsNYG offense · IND defense
NYG 218 #21
IND #31 262
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · NYG defense
IND 116 #18
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
NYG
3rd downNYG offense · IND defense
NYG 40% #17
IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · NYG defense
IND 240 #8
NYG #17 230
IND
3rd downIND offense · NYG defense
IND 43% #7
NYG #14 40%
IND
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · IND defense
NYG 2.7 #22
IND #17 2.2
IND
Pass attackIND offense · NYG defense
IND +0.06 #12
NYG #16 +0.03
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · IND defense
NYG +0.04 #5
IND #9 -0.05
IND
Pass attackNYG offense · IND defense
NYG -0.01 #19
IND #19 +0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.04 #5
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
218 #21
Pass yards
OFF +10
#31 262
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
40% #17
3rd down
OFF +9
#26 43%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +18
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#97
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#94
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
NYGrun block
line +12
INDrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#146
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#173
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#54
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#20
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +29
#32 +0.17
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +9
#17 230
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +14
#31 145
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#17 2.2
43% #7
3rd down
even
#14 40%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +15
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +24
NYGpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#90
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#117
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
INDrun block
line +10
NYGrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#114
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134