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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 2 – 0 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 62% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 23 – IND 27 · IND -3.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND -2.75
IND −3.9
1/10
at the line
bookINDNYG
DK
CZR
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Run gameIND offense · NYG defense OFF +29 IND +0.09 #3 NYG #32 +0.17
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · NYG defense LINE +24 IND 1.8 #7 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
IND Red zoneNYG offense · IND defense DEF +18 NYG 59% #23 IND #5 55%
IND Red zoneIND offense · NYG defense OFF +15 IND 68% #7 NYG #22 68%
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · IND defense LINE +12 NYG 133 #5 IND #17 117
NYG Pass yardsNYG offense · IND defense OFF +10 NYG 218 #21 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · NYG defense LINE +10 IND 116 #18 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
NYG 3rd downNYG offense · IND defense OFF +9 NYG 40% #17 IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
IND Pass yardsIND offense · NYG defense OFF +9 IND 240 #8 NYG #17 230
IND 3rd downIND offense · NYG defense OFF +7 IND 43% #7 NYG #14 40%
IND Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · IND defense RUSH +5 NYG 2.7 #22 IND #17 2.2
IND Pass attackIND offense · NYG defense OFF +4 IND +0.06 #12 NYG #16 +0.03
NYG Run gameNYG offense · IND defense OFF +4 NYG +0.04 #5 IND #9 -0.05
IND Pass attackNYG offense · IND defense DEF +0 NYG -0.01 #19 IND #19 +0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

IND DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 IND DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack even #19 +0.04
+0.04 #5 Run game even #9 -0.05
218 #21 Pass yards OFF +10 #31 262
129 #5 Rush yards even #7 102
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
40% #17 3rd down OFF +9 #26 43%
59% #23 Red zone DEF +18 #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro even INDpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#97
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#94
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
NYGrun block line +12 INDrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#146
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#173
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#54
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#20
Jaylon Carlies WLB
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117