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New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles ★ DIV · NFC EAST ★

Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 3 – 8 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 68% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 19 – PHI 25 · PHI -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI -5.75
PHI −6.1
3/10
at the line
bookPHINYG
DK
CZR
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Red zonePHI offense · NYG defense OFF +20 PHI 74% #2 NYG #22 68%
PHI Run gamePHI offense · NYG defense OFF +18 PHI +0.01 #14 NYG #32 +0.17
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · PHI defense LINE +17 NYG 133 #5 PHI #22 126
PHI Pass yardsNYG offense · PHI defense DEF +15 NYG 218 #21 PHI #6 204
PHI Run block vs frontPHI offense · NYG defense LINE +15 PHI 119 #13 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
PHI Pass attackNYG offense · PHI defense DEF +14 NYG -0.01 #19 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · NYG defense LINE +14 PHI 2.2 #17 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
PHI Red zoneNYG offense · PHI defense DEF +13 NYG 59% #23 PHI #10 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NYG Run gameNYG offense · PHI defense OFF +11 NYG +0.04 #5 PHI #16 -0.02
NYG 3rd downPHI offense · NYG defense DEF +7 PHI 38% #21 NYG #14 40%
NYG Pass yardsPHI offense · NYG defense DEF +6 PHI 206 #23 NYG #17 230
NYG 3rd downNYG offense · PHI defense OFF +5 NYG 40% #17 PHI #22 42%
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · NYG defense OFF +3 PHI +0.04 #13 NYG #16 +0.03
PHI Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · PHI defense RUSH +3 NYG 2.7 #22 PHI #19 2.1

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

PHI DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 PHI DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack DEF +14 #5 -0.12
+0.04 #5 Run game OFF +11 #16 -0.02
218 #21 Pass yards DEF +15 #6 204
129 #5 Rush yards OFF +17 #22 124
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #12 2.5
40% #17 3rd down even #22 42%
59% #23 Red zone DEF +13 #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro even PHIpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#54
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#85
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
NYGrun block line +17 PHIrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#208
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#129
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#559
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#97
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#433
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126