no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 68%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 19 – PHI 25 · PHI -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -5.75
PHI −6.1
3/10
—at the line
| book | PHI | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 74% #2
NYG #22 68%
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · NYG defense
PHI +0.01 #14
NYG #32 +0.17
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 133 #5
PHI #22 126
PHI
Pass yardsNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 218 #21
PHI #6 204
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 119 #13
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
PHI
Pass attackNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG -0.01 #19
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 2.2 #17
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
PHI
Red zoneNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 59% #23
PHI #10 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG +0.04 #5
PHI #16 -0.02
NYG
3rd downPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 38% #21
NYG #14 40%
NYG
Pass yardsPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 206 #23
NYG #17 230
NYG
3rd downNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 40% #17
PHI #22 42%
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI +0.04 #13
NYG #16 +0.03
PHI
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 2.7 #22
PHI #19 2.1
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +14
#5 -0.12
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +11
#16 -0.02
218 #21
Pass yards
DEF +15
#6 204
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +17
#22 124
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#12 2.5
40% #17
3rd down
even
#22 42%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +13
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#54
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#85
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
NYGrun block
line +17
PHIrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#208
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#129
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#559
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#97
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#433
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +18
#32 +0.17
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#17 230
117 #18
Rush yards
OFF +13
#31 145
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
38% #21
3rd down
even
#14 40%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +20
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
line +14
NYGpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#90
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#117
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
PHIrun block
line +15
NYGrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#114
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134