no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 53%
book 64%
43%
73%
book is 11 pts higher
projected CLE 19 – NO 20 · NO -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO -3.75
NO −1.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | NO | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
63.7%
ours 53.0%
5/10
CLE−10.7 pts vs book
| book | NO | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
27 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CLE · 15
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Taylen Green | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
11 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Toriano Pride Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
| Justin Jefferson | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Daniel Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
NO · 12
| Zach Wilson | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| John Ridgeway III | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Khristian Boyd | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Mason Murphy | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 10.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO
Pass yardsCLE offense · NO defense
CLE 185 #31
NO #5 196
CLE
Run gameNO offense · CLE defense
NO -0.10 #31
CLE #5 -0.05
NO
3rd downCLE offense · NO defense
CLE 34% #28
NO #5 36%
CLE
Pass attackNO offense · CLE defense
NO -0.08 #27
CLE #4 -0.13
NO
Run gameCLE offense · NO defense
CLE -0.05 #25
NO #2 -0.07
CLE
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CLE defense
NO 2.9 #25
CLE #3 3.1
NO
Pass attackCLE offense · NO defense
CLE -0.29 #32
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · NO defense
CLE 3.0 #26
NO #10 2.6
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #14
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
NO
Red zoneCLE offense · NO defense
CLE 55% #28
NO #15 62%
CLE
Run block vs frontNO offense · CLE defense
NO 94 #28
CLE #15 116
CLE
Red zoneNO offense · CLE defense
NO 50% #32
CLE #20 66%
CLE
3rd downNO offense · CLE defense
NO 40% #19
CLE #8 37%
NO
Run block vs frontCLE offense · NO defense
CLE 97 #27
NO #19 121
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
CLE
Pass yardsNO offense · CLE defense
NO 237 #10
CLE #3 189
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
NO DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +20
#12 -0.05
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +23
#2 -0.07
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +26
#5 196
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +8
#19 121
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#11 2.6
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +23
#5 36%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +13
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +16
NOpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#14
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#17
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#50
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
CLErun block
front +8
NOrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#9
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#437
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#143
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#39
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 121
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +23
#4 -0.13
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +26
#5 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#3 189
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +12
#16 116
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#3 3.1
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +11
#8 37%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +12
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +22
CLEpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#46
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#72
2.9 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
NOrun block
front +13
CLErun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#87
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#102
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#35
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
94 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116