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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 0 – 2 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders    NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 53% book 64%
43%
73%
book is 11 pts higher
projected CLE 19 – NO 20 · NO -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO -3.75
NO −1.0
4/10
at the line
bookNOCLE
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Saintsmoneyline · wins, last 10
63.7%
ours 53.0%
5/10
CLE−10.7 pts vs book
bookNOCLE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

27 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CLE · 15
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Taylen GreenQBOUTCoach's Decision
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
Dylan SampsonRBQUESTIONABLEKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
11 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Noah IgbinogheneCBOUTCoach's Decision
Toriano Pride Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
Justin JeffersonLBOUTCoach's Decision
Daniel ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
NO · 12
Zach WilsonQBOUTCoach's Decision
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
8 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
John Ridgeway IIIDTOUTCoach's Decision
Khristian BoydDTOUTCoach's Decision
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Mason MurphyOTOUTCoach's Decision
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 10.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO Pass yardsCLE offense · NO defense DEF +26 CLE 185 #31 NO #5 196
CLE Run gameNO offense · CLE defense DEF +26 NO -0.10 #31 CLE #5 -0.05
NO 3rd downCLE offense · NO defense DEF +23 CLE 34% #28 NO #5 36%
CLE Pass attackNO offense · CLE defense DEF +23 NO -0.08 #27 CLE #4 -0.13
NO Run gameCLE offense · NO defense DEF +23 CLE -0.05 #25 NO #2 -0.07
CLE Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CLE defense RUSH +22 NO 2.9 #25 CLE #3 3.1
NO Pass attackCLE offense · NO defense DEF +20 CLE -0.29 #32 NO #12 -0.05
NO Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · NO defense RUSH +16 CLE 3.0 #26 NO #10 2.6 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #14
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
NO Red zoneCLE offense · NO defense DEF +13 CLE 55% #28 NO #15 62%
CLE Run block vs frontNO offense · CLE defense FRONT +13 NO 94 #28 CLE #15 116
CLE Red zoneNO offense · CLE defense DEF +12 NO 50% #32 CLE #20 66%
CLE 3rd downNO offense · CLE defense DEF +11 NO 40% #19 CLE #8 37%
NO Run block vs frontCLE offense · NO defense FRONT +8 CLE 97 #27 NO #19 121 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
CLE Pass yardsNO offense · CLE defense DEF +7 NO 237 #10 CLE #3 189

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NO DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 NO DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack DEF +20 #12 -0.05
-0.05 #25 Run game DEF +23 #2 -0.07
185 #31 Pass yards DEF +26 #5 196
97 #27 Rush yards DEF +8 #19 121
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #11 2.6
34% #28 3rd down DEF +23 #5 36%
55% #28 Red zone DEF +13 #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro rush +16 NOpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#14
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#17
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#50
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
CLErun block front +8 NOrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#9
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#437
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#143
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#39
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 121