Cleveland Browns
@
New Orleans Saints
MODEL NO 59%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00
· Caesars Superdome (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 0 – 2 NO
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Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
NO OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +20
#12 -0.05
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +23
#2 -0.07
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +26
#5 196
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +8
#19 121
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#11 2.6
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +23
#5 36%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +13
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +23
#4 -0.13
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +26
#5 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#3 189
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +12
#16 116
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#3 3.1
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +11
#8 37%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +12
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 3.1
NO PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #12 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #2 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #12 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #12 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #12 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #12 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #4 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #5 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #4 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #4 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #4 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #4 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.