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Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:25 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 1 – 9 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out    SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 74% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 19 – SEA 27 · SEA -8.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -13.25
SEA −8.3
4/10
at the line
bookSEAARI
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ARI · 12
Carson BeckQBOUTCoach's Decision
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Trey BensonRBOUTKnee · IR
Reggie VirgilWROUTCoach's Decision
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Andrew BillingsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Run block vs frontARI offense · SEA defense FRONT +27 ARI 93 #31 SEA #4 94
SEA Run gameARI offense · SEA defense DEF +27 ARI -0.06 #28 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · ARI defense LINE +23 SEA 1.7 #6 ARI #29 1.8 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10
SEA Red zoneARI offense · SEA defense DEF +22 ARI 56% #26 SEA #4 54%
SEA Pass pro vs rushARI offense · SEA defense RUSH +21 ARI 3.5 #28 SEA #7 2.8
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · ARI defense OFF +19 SEA 43% #10 ARI #29 45%
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · ARI defense OFF +19 SEA +0.11 #8 ARI #27 +0.15
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · ARI defense OFF +15 SEA 239 #9 ARI #24 243
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · ARI defense LINE +13 SEA 120 #12 ARI #25 127
SEA 3rd downARI offense · SEA defense DEF +11 ARI 42% #12 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass attackARI offense · SEA defense DEF +9 ARI +0.00 #17 SEA #8 -0.10
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · SEA defense OFF +7 ARI 256 #5 SEA #12 213
ARI Run gameSEA offense · ARI defense DEF +5 SEA -0.05 #26 ARI #21 +0.01
SEA Red zoneSEA offense · ARI defense OFF +3 SEA 62% #18 ARI #21 67%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE ARI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 34% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ARI offense against what it runs into

ARI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.

+0.00 #17 Pass attack DEF +9 #8 -0.10
-0.06 #28 Run game DEF +27 #1 -0.15
256 #5 Pass yards even #12 213
93 #31 Rush yards DEF +28 #3 92
3.5 #28 Pass pro vs rush DEF +20 #8 2.8
42% #12 3rd down DEF +11 #1 33%
56% #26 Red zone DEF +22 #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ARIpass pro rush +21 SEApass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#44
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
ARIrun block front +27 SEArun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#54
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#90
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#315
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#31
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#38
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94