no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 74%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 19 – SEA 27 · SEA -8.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -13.25
SEA −8.3
4/10
—at the line
| book | SEA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ARI · 12
| Carson Beck | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Trey Benson | RB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Reggie Virgil | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Andrew Billings | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Run block vs frontARI offense · SEA defense
ARI 93 #31
SEA #4 94
SEA
Run gameARI offense · SEA defense
ARI -0.06 #28
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA 1.7 #6
ARI #29 1.8
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10
SEA
Red zoneARI offense · SEA defense
ARI 56% #26
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · SEA defense
ARI 3.5 #28
SEA #7 2.8
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA 43% #10
ARI #29 45%
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA +0.11 #8
ARI #27 +0.15
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA 239 #9
ARI #24 243
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA 120 #12
ARI #25 127
SEA
3rd downARI offense · SEA defense
ARI 42% #12
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass attackARI offense · SEA defense
ARI +0.00 #17
SEA #8 -0.10
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · SEA defense
ARI 256 #5
SEA #12 213
ARI
Run gameSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA -0.05 #26
ARI #21 +0.01
SEA
Red zoneSEA offense · ARI defense
SEA 62% #18
ARI #21 67%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +9
#8 -0.10
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +27
#1 -0.15
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#12 213
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +28
#3 92
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#8 2.8
42% #12
3rd down
DEF +11
#1 33%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +22
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +21
SEApass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#44
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
ARIrun block
front +27
SEArun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#54
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#90
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#315
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#31
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#38
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +19
#27 +0.15
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +15
#24 243
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +14
#25 127
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#29 1.8
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +19
#29 45%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +23
ARIpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#10
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#246
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#237
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
SEArun block
line +13
ARIrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#18
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#227
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#168
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#361
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#66
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127