Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Chicago Bears
MODEL CHI 58%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 20:20
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 2 – 0 CHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
CHI OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#22 239
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#27 135
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
42% #13
3rd down
even
#19 41%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +10
#20 +0.07
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
235 #12
Pass yards
OFF +15
#27 255
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#18 2.2
43% #11
3rd down
even
#13 40%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +22
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.2
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #18 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #19 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #18 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #18 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #18 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #18 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #20 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #3 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #20 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #20 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #20 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #20 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.