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Biggest gaps from the book — Week 9
10 of 15 games
The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.
IND win probability
ours 60%
book 47%
39%
69%
book is 13 pts lower
Our number
IND -3.4 · 53.7
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | DAL spread | IND spread | Over | Under | DAL win | IND win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
DAL offense vs IND defense+3.0 pts
IND offense vs DAL defense+5.5 pts
NO win probability
ours 53%
book 64%
43%
73%
book is 11 pts higher
Our number
NO -1.0 · 38.9
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | CLE spread | NO spread | Over | Under | CLE win | NO win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
CLE offense vs NO defense-3.6 pts
NO offense vs CLE defense-2.6 pts
MIA win probability
ours 38%
book 29%
19%
49%
book is 9 pts lower
Our number
DET -3.9 · 48.2
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | DET spread | MIA spread | Over | Under | DET win | MIA win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
DET offense vs MIA defense+3.8 pts
MIA offense vs DET defense-0.8 pts
BAL win probability
ours 57%
book 64%
45%
75%
book is 7 pts higher
Our number
BAL -2.3 · 47.4
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | JAX spread | BAL spread | Over | Under | JAX win | BAL win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
JAX offense vs BAL defense+1.4 pts
BAL offense vs JAX defense+0.8 pts
PHI win probability
ours 68.6%
book 67.5%
53%
83%
book is 1.1 pts lower
Our number
PHI -6.4 · 43.3
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | NYG spread | PHI spread | Over | Under | NYG win | PHI win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
NYG offense vs PHI defense-2.8 pts
PHI offense vs NYG defense+1.0 pts
ATL win probability
ours 33.4%
book 33.1%
18%
48%
book is 0.3 pts lower
Our number
CIN -5.6 · 46.6
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 4 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | CIN spread | ATL spread | Over | Under | CIN win | ATL win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
CIN offense vs ATL defense+1.6 pts
ATL offense vs CIN defense+1.7 pts
KC win probability
ours 77%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
KC -9.7 · 42.9
The market
—
NYJ offense vs KC defense-4.1 pts
KC offense vs NYJ defense+1.8 pts
SF win probability
ours 74%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
SF -8.6 · 43.4
The market
—
LV offense vs SF defense-4.2 pts
SF offense vs LV defense+2.4 pts
SEA win probability
ours 74%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
SEA -8.3 · 45.6
The market
—
ARI offense vs SEA defense-3.5 pts
SEA offense vs ARI defense+3.9 pts
CAR win probability
ours 39%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
DEN -3.5 · 41.7
The market
—
DEN offense vs CAR defense+0.3 pts
CAR offense vs DEN defense-3.7 pts