no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 77%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 17 – KC 27 · KC -9.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
KC -9.75
KAN −9.6
1/10
—at the line
| book | KAN | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYJ · 9
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC
Pass yardsNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ 164 #32
KC #8 205
KC
Red zoneNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ 53% #29
KC #6 55%
KC
Run gameKC offense · NYJ defense
KC +0.03 #6
NYJ #26 +0.03
KC
Pass attackKC offense · NYJ defense
KC +0.04 #14
NYJ #32 +0.25
KC
Run gameNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
KC #11 -0.04
KC
Pass attackNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
KC #15 -0.00
NYJ
3rd downKC offense · NYJ defense
KC 38% #23
NYJ #12 39%
KC
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · NYJ defense
KC 2.8 #23
NYJ #27 1.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
KC
Red zoneKC offense · NYJ defense
KC 58% #25
NYJ #29 70%
NYJ
3rd downNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ 35% #27
KC #28 44%
KC
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ 3.0 #25
KC #24 1.9
NYJ
Run block vs frontKC offense · NYJ defense
KC 107 #25
NYJ #24 129
NYJ
Pass yardsKC offense · NYJ defense
KC 232 #16
NYJ #16 226
KC
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · KC defense
NYJ 126 #7
KC #7 106
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +13
#15 -0.00
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +18
#11 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +24
#8 205
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#9 106
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
35% #27
3rd down
even
#28 44%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +23
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#37
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#56
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#214
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
NYJrun block
even
KCrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#50
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#23
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#423
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#36
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +18
#32 +0.25
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +20
#26 +0.03
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#16 226
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#29 139
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#31 1.5
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +11
#12 39%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#27
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#73
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#107
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
KCrun block
even
NYJrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#158
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#229
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#47
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#157
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129