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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 KC
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams    KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 77% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 17 – KC 27 · KC -9.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chiefsspread · margin, last 10
KC -9.75
KAN −9.6
1/10
at the line
bookKANNYJ
DK
CZR
Chiefstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC Pass yardsNYJ offense · KC defense DEF +24 NYJ 164 #32 KC #8 205
KC Red zoneNYJ offense · KC defense DEF +23 NYJ 53% #29 KC #6 55%
KC Run gameKC offense · NYJ defense OFF +20 KC +0.03 #6 NYJ #26 +0.03
KC Pass attackKC offense · NYJ defense OFF +18 KC +0.04 #14 NYJ #32 +0.25
KC Run gameNYJ offense · KC defense DEF +18 NYJ -0.06 #29 KC #11 -0.04
KC Pass attackNYJ offense · KC defense DEF +13 NYJ -0.18 #28 KC #15 -0.00
NYJ 3rd downKC offense · NYJ defense DEF +11 KC 38% #23 NYJ #12 39%
KC Pass pro vs rushKC offense · NYJ defense LINE +4 KC 2.8 #23 NYJ #27 1.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
KC Red zoneKC offense · NYJ defense OFF +4 KC 58% #25 NYJ #29 70%
NYJ 3rd downNYJ offense · KC defense OFF +1 NYJ 35% #27 KC #28 44%
KC Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · KC defense RUSH +1 NYJ 3.0 #25 KC #24 1.9
NYJ Run block vs frontKC offense · NYJ defense FRONT +1 KC 107 #25 NYJ #24 129
NYJ Pass yardsKC offense · NYJ defense DEF +0 KC 232 #16 NYJ #16 226
KC Run block vs frontNYJ offense · KC defense FRONT +0 NYJ 126 #7 KC #7 106

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

KC DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 KC DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack DEF +13 #15 -0.00
-0.06 #29 Run game DEF +18 #11 -0.04
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +24 #8 205
123 #10 Rush yards even #9 106
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush even #26 1.9
35% #27 3rd down even #28 44%
53% #29 Red zone DEF +23 #6 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro even KCpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Chris Jones DE 7.0 sk#37
George Karlaftis DE 6.0 sk#56
Drue Tranquill LB 2.0 sk#214
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
NYJrun block even KCrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
George Karlaftis LDE 10.0 tfl#50
Chris Jones LDT 12.0 tfl#23
Khyiris Tonga RDT 2.0 tfl#423
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
Drue Tranquill WLB 10.0 tfl#36
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106