New York Jets
@
Kansas City Chiefs
MODEL KAN 73%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 KAN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
KAN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +13
#15 -0.00
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +18
#11 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +24
#8 205
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#9 106
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
35% #27
3rd down
even
#28 44%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +23
#6 55%
KAN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +18
#32 +0.25
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +20
#26 +0.03
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#16 226
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#29 139
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#31 1.5
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +11
#12 39%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 1.5
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #15 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #11 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #15 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #15 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #15 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #15 PASS D
— rec y/g
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #32 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #26 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #32 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #32 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #32 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #32 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.