no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out BAL Joe Fagnano QB out · Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Elijah Sarratt WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR q → LaJohntay Wester · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 57%
book 64%
45%
75%
book is 7 pts higher
projected JAX 23 – BAL 25 · BAL -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BAL -4.5
BAL −2.3
6/10
—at the line
| book | BAL | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
64.5%
ours 57.0%
6/10
JAC−7.4 pts vs book
| book | BAL | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
| Quinn Ewers | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Bryan Thomas Jr. | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Wesley Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Daniel Faalele | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| Jalen Huskey | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
BAL · 13
| Joe Fagnano | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Elijah Sarratt | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
| Next up: LaJohntay Wester WR6 · 0 tgt · 0 rec · 0 yds · 6% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Danny Pinter | C | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Chandler Rivers | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Emery Jones Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 7.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Pass attackBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL -0.04 #24
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX 237 #11
BAL #29 259
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL +0.10 #2
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX +0.06 #11
BAL #21 +0.07
BAL
Run block vs frontJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX 115 #20
BAL #10 107
BAL
Run gameJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX -0.00 #17
BAL #7 -0.05
JAX
Pass yardsBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL 193 #28
JAX #19 231
BAL
3rd downJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX 40% #18
BAL #10 38%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX 2.4 #20
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL 2.6 #21
JAX #27 1.9
BAL
Red zoneJAX offense · BAL defense
JAX 65% #12
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Red zoneBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL 60% #22
JAX #25 68%
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL 41% #15
JAX #17 41%
JAX
Run block vs frontBAL offense · JAX defense
BAL 157 #2
JAX #1 86
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +10
#21 +0.07
-0.00 #17
Run game
DEF +10
#7 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +18
#29 259
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +10
#10 107
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#28 1.8
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +8
#10 38%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
line +8
BALpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#85
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
JAXrun block
front +10
BALrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#455
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#58
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#61
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#312
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#182
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 107
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
JAX DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +21
#3 -0.14
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +11
#13 -0.04
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +9
#19 231
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
41% #15
3rd down
even
#17 41%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#26
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#109
2.6 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
BALrun block
even
JAXrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#100
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#346
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#23
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#175
157 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86