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Week 9 · 2026-11-05 · 20:15 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 1 – 1 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out    BAL Joe Fagnano QB out · Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Elijah Sarratt WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR q → LaJohntay Wester · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 57% book 64%
45%
75%
book is 7 pts higher
projected JAX 23 – BAL 25 · BAL -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -4.5
BAL −2.3
6/10
at the line
bookBALJAC
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Ravensmoneyline · wins, last 10
64.5%
ours 57.0%
6/10
JAC−7.4 pts vs book
bookBALJAC
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
Quinn EwersQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner KoziolTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Bryan Thomas Jr.DEOUTCoach's Decision
Wesley WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Daniel FaaleleGOUTCoach's Decision
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
Jalen HuskeySOUTCoach's Decision
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
BAL · 13
Joe FagnanoQBOUTCoach's Decision
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Elijah SarrattWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Kobi LaneWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: LaJohntay Wester WR6 · 0 tgt · 0 rec · 0 yds · 6% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Danny PinterCOUTKnee · IR
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Chandler RiversCBOUTCoach's Decision
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
Emery Jones Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 7.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Pass attackBAL offense · JAX defense DEF +21 BAL -0.04 #24 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · BAL defense OFF +18 JAX 237 #11 BAL #29 259
BAL Run gameBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +11 BAL +0.10 #2 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · BAL defense OFF +10 JAX +0.06 #11 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL Run block vs frontJAX offense · BAL defense FRONT +10 JAX 115 #20 BAL #10 107
BAL Run gameJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +10 JAX -0.00 #17 BAL #7 -0.05
JAX Pass yardsBAL offense · JAX defense DEF +9 BAL 193 #28 JAX #19 231
BAL 3rd downJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +8 JAX 40% #18 BAL #10 38%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · BAL defense LINE +8 JAX 2.4 #20 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · JAX defense LINE +6 BAL 2.6 #21 JAX #27 1.9
BAL Red zoneJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +5 JAX 65% #12 BAL #7 55%
BAL Red zoneBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +3 BAL 60% #22 JAX #25 68%
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +2 BAL 41% #15 JAX #17 41%
JAX Run block vs frontBAL offense · JAX defense FRONT +1 BAL 157 #2 JAX #1 86

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

BAL DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +10 #21 +0.07
-0.00 #17 Run game DEF +10 #7 -0.05
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +18 #29 259
115 #20 Rush yards DEF +10 #10 107
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush OFF +8 #28 1.8
40% #18 3rd down DEF +8 #10 38%
65% #12 Red zone even #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro line +8 BALpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#85
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
JAXrun block front +10 BALrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#455
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#58
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#61
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#312
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#182
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 107