Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Baltimore Ravens
MODEL BAL 54%
Week 9 · 2026-11-05 · 20:15
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 1 – 1 BAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
BAL OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +10
#21 +0.07
-0.01 #18
Run game
DEF +11
#7 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +18
#29 259
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +10
#10 107
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#30 1.8
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +8
#10 38%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +21
#3 -0.14
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +11
#13 -0.04
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +9
#19 231
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
41% #15
3rd down
even
#17 41%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 1.9
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #21 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #7 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #21 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #21 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #21 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #21 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #3 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #13 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #3 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #3 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #3 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #3 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.