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Week 9 · 2026-11-05 · 20:15 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 1 – 1 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 58% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 23 – BAL 26 · BAL -2.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -4.5
BAL −2.6
6/10
at the line
bookBALJAC
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
JAX · 4
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Pass attackBAL offense · JAX defense DEF +21 BAL -0.04 #24 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · BAL defense OFF +18 JAX 237 #11 BAL #29 259
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · BAL defense LINE +12 JAX 2.2 #16 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run gameBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +11 BAL +0.10 #2 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · BAL defense OFF +10 JAX +0.06 #11 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL Run gameJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +10 JAX -0.00 #17 BAL #7 -0.05
JAX Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · JAX defense RUSH +9 BAL 2.5 #20 JAX #11 2.6
JAX Pass yardsBAL offense · JAX defense DEF +9 BAL 193 #28 JAX #19 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BAL Run block vs frontJAX offense · BAL defense FRONT +9 JAX 116 #17 BAL #8 106
BAL 3rd downJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +8 JAX 40% #18 BAL #10 38%
BAL Red zoneJAX offense · BAL defense DEF +5 JAX 65% #12 BAL #7 55%
BAL Red zoneBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +3 BAL 60% #22 JAX #25 68%
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · JAX defense OFF +2 BAL 41% #15 JAX #17 41%
JAX Run block vs frontBAL offense · JAX defense FRONT +0 BAL 162 #1 JAX #1 86

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

BAL DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +10 #21 +0.07
-0.00 #17 Run game DEF +10 #7 -0.05
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +18 #29 259
115 #20 Rush yards DEF +10 #10 107
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush OFF +8 #28 1.8
40% #18 3rd down DEF +8 #10 38%
65% #12 Red zone even #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro line +12 BALpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#70
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#82
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
JAXrun block front +9 BALrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#436
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#51
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#297
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#204
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106