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Week 9 · 2026-11-09 · 20:15 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 0 – 1 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out
MIN win probability
ours 49% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 23 – MIN 22 · BUF -0.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN +3.25
MIN +0.3
7/10
at the line
bookMINBUF
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 4:00 PM
BUF · 11
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Skyler BellWROUTCoach's Decision
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
Mike DannaDEOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
Zane DurantDTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGOUTCoach's Decision
Jude BowryOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jalon KilgoreSOUTCoach's Decision
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTQUESTIONABLEBack
MIN · 10
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Pass yardsMIN offense · BUF defense DEF +29 MIN 189 #30 BUF #1 170
BUF Pass attackMIN offense · BUF defense DEF +23 MIN -0.19 #30 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · MIN defense LINE +20 BUF 160 #1 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · MIN defense RUSH +15 BUF 2.4 #19 MIN #4 2.9
MIN Pass yardsBUF offense · MIN defense DEF +11 BUF 234 #13 MIN #2 178
MIN Run gameMIN offense · BUF defense OFF +10 MIN -0.01 #20 BUF #30 +0.09
BUF Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · BUF defense RUSH +9 MIN 3.5 #29 BUF #20 2.1
BUF 3rd downMIN offense · BUF defense DEF +7 MIN 32% #31 BUF #24 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
BUF Run gameBUF offense · MIN defense OFF +5 BUF +0.11 #1 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN Pass attackBUF offense · MIN defense DEF +4 BUF +0.16 #6 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Run block vs frontMIN offense · BUF defense LINE +4 MIN 108 #24 BUF #28 136
MIN Red zoneMIN offense · BUF defense OFF +3 MIN 61% #21 BUF #24 68%
MIN Red zoneBUF offense · MIN defense DEF +1 BUF 72% #3 MIN #2 49%
MIN 3rd downBUF offense · MIN defense DEF +0 BUF 46% #3 MIN #3 35%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

MIN DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 MIN DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack even #2 -0.15
+0.11 #1 Run game even #6 -0.05
234 #13 Pass yards DEF +11 #2 178
160 #1 Rush yards OFF +20 #21 124
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #4 2.9
46% #3 3rd down even #3 35%
72% #3 Red zone even #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro rush +15 MINpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#27
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#42
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#46
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
BUFrun block line +20 MINrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#81
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#24
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#35
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124