Buffalo Bills
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 49%
Week 9 · 2026-11-09 · 20:15
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 0 – 1 MIN
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BUF OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
MIN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BUF OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
234 #13
Pass yards
DEF +11
#2 178
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +20
#21 124
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#4 2.9
46% #3
3rd down
even
#3 35%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +23
#7 -0.11
-0.01 #20
Run game
OFF +10
#30 +0.09
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +29
#1 170
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#28 136
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#20 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
even
#24 42%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.1
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #2 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #6 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #2 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #2 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #2 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #2 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #7 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #30 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #7 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #7 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #7 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #7 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.