no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out
MIN win probability
ours 49%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 23 – MIN 22 · BUF -0.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIN +3.25
MIN +0.3
7/10
—at the line
| book | MIN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 4:00 PM
BUF · 11
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
MIN · 10
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
Pass yardsMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN 189 #30
BUF #1 170
BUF
Pass attackMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN -0.19 #30
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF 160 #1
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF 2.4 #19
MIN #4 2.9
MIN
Pass yardsBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF 234 #13
MIN #2 178
MIN
Run gameMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN -0.01 #20
BUF #30 +0.09
BUF
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN 3.5 #29
BUF #20 2.1
BUF
3rd downMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN 32% #31
BUF #24 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF +0.11 #1
MIN #6 -0.05
MIN
Pass attackBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF +0.16 #6
MIN #2 -0.15
MIN
Run block vs frontMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN 108 #24
BUF #28 136
MIN
Red zoneMIN offense · BUF defense
MIN 61% #21
BUF #24 68%
MIN
Red zoneBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF 72% #3
MIN #2 49%
MIN
3rd downBUF offense · MIN defense
BUF 46% #3
MIN #3 35%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
MIN DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
234 #13
Pass yards
DEF +11
#2 178
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +20
#21 124
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#4 2.9
46% #3
3rd down
even
#3 35%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
rush +15
MINpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#27
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#42
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#46
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
BUFrun block
line +20
MINrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#81
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#24
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#35
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +23
#7 -0.11
-0.01 #20
Run game
OFF +10
#30 +0.09
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +29
#1 170
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#28 136
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#20 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
even
#24 42%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +9
BUFpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#43
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#159
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
MINrun block
even
BUFrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#583
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#69
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#109
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#147
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#536
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136