no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 60%
book 47%
39%
69%
book is 13 pts lower
projected DAL 25 – IND 29 · IND -3.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
IND +0.25
IND −3.4
2/10
—at the line
| book | IND | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
52.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.8%
ours 60.3%
2/10
IND+13.6 pts vs book
| book | IND | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DAL · 12
| Israel Abanikanda | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| Camden Brown | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Caelen Carson | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Tyrus Wheat | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ajani Cornelius | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
IND · 11
| Riley Leonard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Giddens | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hand |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Johnathan Edwards | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Tucker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
| George Gumbs Jr. | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 13.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · IND defense
DAL 279 #1
IND #31 262
IND
Run gameIND offense · DAL defense
IND +0.09 #3
DAL #31 +0.09
IND
3rd downIND offense · DAL defense
IND 43% #7
DAL #31 48%
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · DAL defense
IND 240 #8
DAL #32 266
IND
Red zoneIND offense · DAL defense
IND 68% #7
DAL #31 72%
IND
Pass attackIND offense · DAL defense
IND +0.06 #12
DAL #31 +0.22
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · IND defense
DAL 43% #8
IND #26 43%
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · DAL defense
IND 1.7 #8
DAL #25 2.0
6 more comparisons, gap under 17
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · IND defense
DAL +0.16 #5
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Red zoneDAL offense · IND defense
DAL 62% #17
IND #5 55%
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · DAL defense
IND 118 #17
DAL #23 125
IND
Run gameDAL offense · IND defense
DAL +0.01 #15
IND #9 -0.05
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · IND defense
DAL 1.8 #11
IND #15 2.3
IND
Run block vs frontDAL offense · IND defense
DAL 126 #9
IND #7 102
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2025
IND DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +14
#19 +0.04
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +30
#31 262
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#7 102
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +18
#26 43%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +12
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#98
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#107
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
DALrun block
even
INDrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#125
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#195
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#51
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#21
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +19
#31 +0.22
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +28
#31 +0.09
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +24
#32 266
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#25 2.0
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +24
#31 48%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +24
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +17
DALpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#29
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#60
1.7 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 2.0
INDrun block
even
DALrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#45
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#348
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#109
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#604
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125