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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 1 – 0 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out    IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 60% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 26 – IND 29 · IND -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND +0.25
IND −3.3
1/10
at the line
bookINDDAL
CZR
DK
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · IND defense OFF +30 DAL 279 #1 IND #31 262
IND Run gameIND offense · DAL defense OFF +28 IND +0.09 #3 DAL #31 +0.09
IND 3rd downIND offense · DAL defense OFF +24 IND 43% #7 DAL #31 48%
IND Pass yardsIND offense · DAL defense OFF +24 IND 240 #8 DAL #32 266
IND Red zoneIND offense · DAL defense OFF +24 IND 68% #7 DAL #31 72%
IND Pass attackIND offense · DAL defense OFF +19 IND +0.06 #12 DAL #31 +0.22
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · IND defense OFF +18 DAL 43% #8 IND #26 43%
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · DAL defense LINE +16 IND 1.8 #7 DAL #23 2.0
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · IND defense OFF +14 DAL +0.16 #5 IND #19 +0.04
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · IND defense LINE +12 DAL 1.5 #5 IND #17 2.2
IND Red zoneDAL offense · IND defense DEF +12 DAL 62% #17 IND #5 55%
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · DAL defense LINE +7 IND 116 #18 DAL #25 131
IND Run gameDAL offense · IND defense DEF +6 DAL +0.01 #15 IND #9 -0.05
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · IND defense LINE +5 DAL 119 #12 IND #17 117

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

IND DEFENSE DAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DAL offense against what it runs into

DAL OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 IND DEFENSE
+0.16 #5 Pass attack OFF +14 #19 +0.04
+0.01 #15 Run game even #9 -0.05
279 #1 Pass yards OFF +30 #31 262
126 #9 Rush yards even #7 102
1.8 #11 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
43% #8 3rd down OFF +18 #26 43%
62% #17 Red zone DEF +12 #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DALpass pro line +12 INDpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#90
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#95
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
DALrun block even INDrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#154
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#173
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#54
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#24
Jaylon Carlies WLB
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117