Dallas Cowboys
@
Indianapolis Colts
MODEL IND 63%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 1 – 0 IND
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DAL OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
IND OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DAL OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +14
#19 +0.04
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +30
#31 262
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#7 102
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +18
#26 43%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +12
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +19
#31 +0.22
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +28
#31 +0.09
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +24
#32 266
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#24 2.0
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +24
#31 48%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +24
#31 72%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.0
IND PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #19 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #9 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #19 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #19 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #19 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #19 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #31 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #31 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #31 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #31 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #31 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #31 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.