Detroit Lions
@
Miami Dolphins
MODEL MIA 42%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00
· Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 0 – 1 MIA
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
MIA OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +22
#26 +0.13
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +15
#18 231
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +12
#26 132
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
39% #20
3rd down
even
#18 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +14
#19 66%
MIA OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#21 237
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#5 2.8
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +17
#9 37%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +9
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.8
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #26 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #27 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #26 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #26 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #26 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #26 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #14 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #18 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #14 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #14 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #14 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #14 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.