no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
MIA win probability
ours 38%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 27 – MIA 23 · DET -4.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIA +6.5
MIA +4.0
5/10
—at the line
| book | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 6
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Juice Scruggs | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Blake Miller | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass attackDET offense · MIA defense
DET +0.17 #4
MIA #26 +0.13
DET
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · DET defense
MIA 2.7 #21
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
3rd downMIA offense · DET defense
MIA 35% #26
DET #9 37%
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · MIA defense
DET 125 #10
MIA #26 132
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · MIA defense
DET 2.1 #15
MIA #30 1.8
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · MIA defense
DET 269 #3
MIA #18 231
DET
Red zoneDET offense · MIA defense
DET 70% #5
MIA #19 66%
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · DET defense
MIA 64% #14
DET #23 68%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET
Run block vs frontMIA offense · DET defense
MIA 115 #19
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET
Pass attackMIA offense · DET defense
MIA -0.01 #20
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Pass yardsMIA offense · DET defense
MIA 195 #25
DET #21 237
DET
Run gameDET offense · MIA defense
DET -0.04 #24
MIA #27 +0.04
DET
Run gameMIA offense · DET defense
MIA -0.03 #21
DET #18 -0.01
MIA
3rd downDET offense · MIA defense
DET 39% #20
MIA #18 41%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +22
#26 +0.13
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +15
#18 231
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +12
#26 132
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
39% #20
3rd down
even
#18 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +14
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
line +15
MIApass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#66
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#88
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#91
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
DETrun block
line +16
MIArun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#211
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#443
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#48
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#382
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#16
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#21 237
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#6 2.8
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +17
#9 37%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +9
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
rush +19
DETpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#75
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#107
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
MIArun block
even
DETrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#412
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#430
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#229
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#135
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111