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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 0 – 1 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
MIA win probability
ours 38% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 27 – MIA 23 · DET -4.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA +6.5
MIA +4.0
5/10
at the line
bookMIADET
DK
CZR
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass attackDET offense · MIA defense OFF +22 DET +0.17 #4 MIA #26 +0.13
DET Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · DET defense RUSH +19 MIA 2.7 #21 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET 3rd downMIA offense · DET defense DEF +17 MIA 35% #26 DET #9 37%
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · MIA defense LINE +16 DET 125 #10 MIA #26 132
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · MIA defense LINE +15 DET 2.1 #15 MIA #30 1.8
DET Pass yardsDET offense · MIA defense OFF +15 DET 269 #3 MIA #18 231
DET Red zoneDET offense · MIA defense OFF +14 DET 70% #5 MIA #19 66%
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · DET defense OFF +9 MIA 64% #14 DET #23 68%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET Run block vs frontMIA offense · DET defense FRONT +7 MIA 115 #19 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET Pass attackMIA offense · DET defense DEF +6 MIA -0.01 #20 DET #14 -0.01
DET Pass yardsMIA offense · DET defense DEF +4 MIA 195 #25 DET #21 237
DET Run gameDET offense · MIA defense OFF +3 DET -0.04 #24 MIA #27 +0.04
DET Run gameMIA offense · DET defense DEF +3 MIA -0.03 #21 DET #18 -0.01
MIA 3rd downDET offense · MIA defense DEF +2 DET 39% #20 MIA #18 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

MIA DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +22 #26 +0.13
-0.04 #24 Run game even #27 +0.04
269 #3 Pass yards OFF +15 #18 231
120 #14 Rush yards OFF +12 #26 132
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush even #15 2.3
39% #20 3rd down even #18 41%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +14 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro line +15 MIApass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#66
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#88
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#91
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
DETrun block line +16 MIArun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#211
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#443
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#48
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#382
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#16
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132