Las Vegas Raiders
@
San Francisco 49ers
MODEL SF 73%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:05
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 0 – 1 SF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
SF OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +10
#22 +0.01
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#23 242
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +21
#11 108
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +9
#20 41%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +13
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +16
#23 +0.08
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#13 214
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#17 117
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#21 2.1
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +29
#30 47%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.1
SF PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #25 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #22 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #25 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #25 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #25 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #25 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #23 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #14 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #23 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #23 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #23 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #23 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.