no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 74%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 18 – SF 27 · SF -8.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -9
SF −8.5
7/10
—at the line
| book | SF | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
3rd downSF offense · LV defense
SF 51% #1
LV #30 47%
SF
Run block vs frontLV offense · SF defense
LV 83 #32
SF #10 110
SF
Pass attackSF offense · LV defense
SF +0.16 #7
LV #22 +0.08
SF
Red zoneLV offense · SF defense
LV 56% #27
SF #14 62%
SF
Run gameLV offense · SF defense
LV -0.26 #32
SF #22 +0.01
SF
3rd downLV offense · SF defense
LV 34% #29
SF #20 41%
LV
Run block vs frontSF offense · LV defense
SF 114 #20
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · LV defense
SF 254 #6
LV #13 214
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
LV
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · SF defense
LV 3.2 #27
SF #32 0.9
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LV defense
SF 1.3 #2
LV #7 2.8
SF
Pass attackLV offense · SF defense
LV -0.19 #29
SF #25 +0.11
LV
Run gameSF offense · LV defense
SF -0.00 #18
LV #14 -0.04
SF
Pass yardsLV offense · SF defense
LV 195 #26
SF #23 242
SF
Red zoneSF offense · LV defense
SF 68% #8
LV #11 59%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +10
#22 +0.01
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#23 242
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +21
#11 108
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +9
#20 41%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +13
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
even
SFpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#114
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#160
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#264
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
LVrun block
front +22
SFrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#380
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#138
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#211
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#391
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +15
#22 +0.08
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#13 214
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#17 117
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#21 2.1
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +29
#30 47%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
even
LVpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#105
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
SFrun block
front +9
LVrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#70
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#206
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#108
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111