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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:05 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 0 – 1 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 74% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 18 – SF 27 · SF -8.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -9
SF −8.5
7/10
at the line
bookSFLV
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LV · 5
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF 3rd downSF offense · LV defense OFF +29 SF 51% #1 LV #30 47%
SF Run block vs frontLV offense · SF defense FRONT +22 LV 83 #32 SF #10 110
SF Pass attackSF offense · LV defense OFF +15 SF +0.16 #7 LV #22 +0.08
SF Red zoneLV offense · SF defense DEF +13 LV 56% #27 SF #14 62%
SF Run gameLV offense · SF defense DEF +10 LV -0.26 #32 SF #22 +0.01
SF 3rd downLV offense · SF defense DEF +9 LV 34% #29 SF #20 41%
LV Run block vs frontSF offense · LV defense FRONT +9 SF 114 #20 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
SF Pass yardsSF offense · LV defense OFF +7 SF 254 #6 LV #13 214
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
LV Pass pro vs rushLV offense · SF defense LINE +5 LV 3.2 #27 SF #32 0.9
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LV defense LINE +5 SF 1.3 #2 LV #7 2.8
SF Pass attackLV offense · SF defense DEF +4 LV -0.19 #29 SF #25 +0.11
LV Run gameSF offense · LV defense DEF +4 SF -0.00 #18 LV #14 -0.04
SF Pass yardsLV offense · SF defense DEF +3 LV 195 #26 SF #23 242
SF Red zoneSF offense · LV defense OFF +3 SF 68% #8 LV #11 59%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

SF DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

-0.19 #29 Pass attack even #25 +0.11
-0.26 #32 Run game DEF +10 #22 +0.01
195 #26 Pass yards even #23 242
77 #32 Rush yards DEF +21 #11 108
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush even #32 1.2
34% #29 3rd down DEF +9 #20 41%
56% #27 Red zone DEF +13 #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro even SFpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#159
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#262
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
LVrun block front +22 SFrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#422
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#132
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#221
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#404
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110