BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 09:30 · Bernabeu · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 1 – 0 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 33% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 27 – ATL 21 · CIN -5.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +4.5
ATL +5.9
7/10
at the line
bookATLCIN
DK
SCORE
CZR
FD
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · CIN defense LINE +21 ATL 125 #9 CIN #30 139
CIN Run gameCIN offense · ATL defense OFF +17 CIN +0.02 #8 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL Red zoneATL offense · CIN defense OFF +13 ATL 65% #13 CIN #26 69%
ATL Run block vs frontCIN offense · ATL defense FRONT +13 CIN 95 #29 ATL #16 116
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · ATL defense OFF +12 CIN 76% #1 ATL #13 62%
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · ATL defense OFF +10 CIN 44% #5 ATL #15 40%
ATL Pass attackCIN offense · ATL defense DEF +10 CIN -0.03 #23 ATL #13 -0.03
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · ATL defense OFF +8 CIN 250 #7 ATL #15 222
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
ATL Pass attackATL offense · CIN defense OFF +7 ATL -0.01 #21 CIN #28 +0.16
ATL Run gameATL offense · CIN defense OFF +6 ATL -0.03 #23 CIN #29 +0.09
ATL Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · ATL defense RUSH +5 CIN 1.9 #10 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · CIN defense OFF +5 ATL 218 #20 CIN #25 246
CIN 3rd downATL offense · CIN defense DEF +3 ATL 34% #30 CIN #27 44%
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CIN defense LINE +3 ATL 1.9 #9 CIN #12 2.4

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

ATL DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE
-0.03 #23 Pass attack DEF +10 #13 -0.03
+0.02 #8 Run game OFF +17 #25 +0.03
250 #7 Pass yards OFF +8 #15 222
94 #29 Rush yards even #24 126
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush DEF +12 #2 3.4
44% #5 3rd down OFF +10 #15 40%
76% #1 Red zone OFF +12 #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro even ATLpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#50
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
CINrun block front +13 ATLrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116