no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 33%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 27 – ATL 21 · CIN -5.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +4.5
ATL +5.9
7/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
49.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · CIN defense
ATL 125 #9
CIN #30 139
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN +0.02 #8
ATL #25 +0.03
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · CIN defense
ATL 65% #13
CIN #26 69%
ATL
Run block vs frontCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN 95 #29
ATL #16 116
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN 76% #1
ATL #13 62%
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN 44% #5
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Pass attackCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN -0.03 #23
ATL #13 -0.03
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN 250 #7
ATL #15 222
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
ATL
Pass attackATL offense · CIN defense
ATL -0.01 #21
CIN #28 +0.16
ATL
Run gameATL offense · CIN defense
ATL -0.03 #23
CIN #29 +0.09
ATL
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · ATL defense
CIN 1.9 #10
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · CIN defense
ATL 218 #20
CIN #25 246
CIN
3rd downATL offense · CIN defense
ATL 34% #30
CIN #27 44%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CIN defense
ATL 1.9 #9
CIN #12 2.4
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +10
#13 -0.03
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +17
#25 +0.03
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +8
#15 222
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#2 3.4
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +10
#15 40%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +12
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
ATLpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
CINrun block
front +13
ATLrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#25 246
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +24
#32 147
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#24 2.0
34% #30
3rd down
even
#27 44%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +13
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
CINpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#60
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#96
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#130
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
ATLrun block
line +21
CINrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#246
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#114
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#127
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#256
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139