Cincinnati Bengals
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 50%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 09:30
· Bernabeu
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 1 – 0 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +10
#13 -0.03
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +17
#25 +0.03
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +8
#15 222
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#2 3.4
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +10
#15 40%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +12
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#25 246
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +24
#32 147
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#23 2.0
34% #30
3rd down
even
#27 44%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +13
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.0
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #13 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #25 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #13 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #13 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #13 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #13 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #28 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #29 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #28 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #28 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #28 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #28 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.