no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 49%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 21 – LAC 20 · HOU -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -2.5
LAC +0.5
7/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
LAC · 12
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Chest |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Alex Harkey | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Branson Taylor | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Logan Taylor | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Penning | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| RJ Mickens | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
Red zoneHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU 51% #31
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run gameHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU -0.08 #30
LAC #4 -0.07
HOU
Pass attackLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC -0.05 #26
HOU #1 -0.19
HOU
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC 3.5 #30
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
LAC
3rd downHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU 38% #24
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Run block vs frontHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU 109 #23
LAC #8 105
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
HOU
Red zoneLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC 52% #30
HOU #16 63%
LAC
Pass yardsHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU 233 #14
LAC #4 195
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
HOU
Pass yardsLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC 233 #15
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run block vs frontLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC 122 #11
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
LAC
Pass attackHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU +0.04 #15
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC 46% #4
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Run gameLAC offense · HOU defense
LAC +0.02 #11
HOU #8 -0.05
LAC
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · LAC defense
HOU 1.8 #10
LAC #9 2.6
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +26
#4 -0.07
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +10
#4 195
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +14
#8 105
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +20
#4 35%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +28
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
LACpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#56
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#66
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
HOUrun block
front +15
LACrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#250
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#306
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#207
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#5
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#170
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 105
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
HOU DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +25
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
233 #15
Pass yards
DEF +8
#7 205
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +8
#4 94
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#7 2.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#7 37%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +14
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +22
HOUpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#24
3.5 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
LACrun block
front +8
HOUrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#166
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#60
122 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94