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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 3 – 1 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 49% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 21 – LAC 20 · HOU -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -2.5
LAC +0.5
7/10
at the line
bookLACHOU
DK
CZR
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen
LAC · 12
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLEChest
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Alex HarkeyGOUTCoach's Decision
Branson TaylorGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Logan TaylorGOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor PenningGOUTCoach's Decision
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
RJ MickensSOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC Red zoneHOU offense · LAC defense DEF +28 HOU 51% #31 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameHOU offense · LAC defense DEF +26 HOU -0.08 #30 LAC #4 -0.07
HOU Pass attackLAC offense · HOU defense DEF +25 LAC -0.05 #26 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · HOU defense RUSH +22 LAC 3.5 #30 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
LAC 3rd downHOU offense · LAC defense DEF +20 HOU 38% #24 LAC #4 35%
LAC Run block vs frontHOU offense · LAC defense FRONT +15 HOU 109 #23 LAC #8 105 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
HOU Red zoneLAC offense · HOU defense DEF +14 LAC 52% #30 HOU #16 63%
LAC Pass yardsHOU offense · LAC defense DEF +10 HOU 233 #14 LAC #4 195
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
HOU Pass yardsLAC offense · HOU defense DEF +8 LAC 233 #15 HOU #7 205
HOU Run block vs frontLAC offense · HOU defense FRONT +8 LAC 122 #11 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
LAC Pass attackHOU offense · LAC defense DEF +6 HOU +0.04 #15 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · HOU defense OFF +3 LAC 46% #4 HOU #7 37%
HOU Run gameLAC offense · HOU defense DEF +3 LAC +0.02 #11 HOU #8 -0.05
LAC Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · LAC defense RUSH +1 HOU 1.8 #10 LAC #9 2.6 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

LAC DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack even #9 -0.09
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +26 #4 -0.07
233 #14 Pass yards DEF +10 #4 195
109 #22 Rush yards DEF +14 #8 105
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #10 2.6
38% #24 3rd down DEF +20 #4 35%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +28 #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even LACpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#56
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#66
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
HOUrun block front +15 LACrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#250
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#306
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#207
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#5
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#170
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 105