Houston Texans
@
Los Angeles Chargers
MODEL LAC 49%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:05
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 3 – 1 LAC
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
LAC OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +26
#4 -0.07
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +10
#4 195
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +14
#8 105
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +20
#4 35%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +28
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +25
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
233 #15
Pass yards
DEF +8
#7 205
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +8
#4 94
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#7 2.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#7 37%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +14
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.8
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #9 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #4 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #9 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #9 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #9 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #9 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #1 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #8 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #1 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #1 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #1 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #1 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.