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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 1 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out    CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 39% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 24 – CAR 20 · DEN -3.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR +2.75
CAR +3.7
5/9
at the line
bookCARDEN
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · CAR defense LINE +26 DEN 1.4 #3 CAR #29 1.8
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · CAR defense OFF +23 DEN 43% #9 CAR #32 48%
DEN 3rd downCAR offense · DEN defense DEF +23 CAR 36% #25 DEN #2 34%
DEN Red zoneCAR offense · DEN defense DEF +23 CAR 59% #24 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackCAR offense · DEN defense DEF +19 CAR -0.05 #25 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Run block vs frontDEN offense · CAR defense LINE +18 DEN 119 #14 CAR #32 148
DEN Pass yardsCAR offense · DEN defense DEF +16 CAR 194 #27 DEN #11 212
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · CAR defense OFF +15 DEN +0.08 #9 CAR #24 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DEN Run block vs frontCAR offense · DEN defense FRONT +13 CAR 117 #15 DEN #2 91
DEN Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · DEN defense RUSH +12 CAR 2.0 #13 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Run gameCAR offense · DEN defense DEF +12 CAR -0.03 #22 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN Run gameDEN offense · CAR defense OFF +8 DEN +0.00 #16 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Pass yardsDEN offense · CAR defense DEF +3 DEN 231 #17 CAR #14 215
CAR Red zoneDEN offense · CAR defense DEF +3 DEN 63% #15 CAR #12 60%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CAR DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +15 #24 +0.11
+0.00 #16 Run game OFF +8 #24 +0.02
231 #17 Pass yards even #14 215
119 #16 Rush yards even #20 123
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +29 #30 1.8
43% #9 3rd down OFF +23 #32 48%
63% #15 Red zone even #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro line +26 CARpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#71
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#69
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
DENrun block line +18 CARrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#189
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#350
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#375
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#155
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148