Denver Broncos
@
Carolina Panthers
MODEL CAR 44%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 1 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
CAR OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +15
#24 +0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +8
#24 +0.02
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#14 215
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +27
#28 1.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +23
#32 48%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +19
#6 -0.12
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +12
#10 -0.04
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +16
#11 212
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +17
#2 91
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#1 4.0
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +23
#2 34%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +23
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 4.0
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #24 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #24 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #24 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #24 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #24 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #24 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #6 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #10 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #6 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #6 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #6 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #6 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.