no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 39%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 24 – CAR 20 · DEN -3.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR +2.75
CAR +3.7
5/9
—at the line
| book | CAR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN 1.4 #3
CAR #29 1.8
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN 43% #9
CAR #32 48%
DEN
3rd downCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR 36% #25
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Red zoneCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR 59% #24
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass attackCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR -0.05 #25
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Run block vs frontDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN 119 #14
CAR #32 148
DEN
Pass yardsCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR 194 #27
DEN #11 212
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN +0.08 #9
CAR #24 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DEN
Run block vs frontCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR 117 #15
DEN #2 91
DEN
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR 2.0 #13
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Run gameCAR offense · DEN defense
CAR -0.03 #22
DEN #10 -0.04
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN +0.00 #16
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Pass yardsDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN 231 #17
CAR #14 215
CAR
Red zoneDEN offense · CAR defense
DEN 63% #15
CAR #12 60%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +15
#24 +0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +8
#24 +0.02
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#14 215
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +29
#30 1.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +23
#32 48%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +26
CARpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#69
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
DENrun block
line +18
CARrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#189
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#350
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#375
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#155
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +19
#6 -0.12
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +12
#10 -0.04
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +16
#11 212
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +17
#2 91
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#1 4.0
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +23
#2 34%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +23
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
rush +12
DENpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#25
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#41
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
CARrun block
front +13
DENrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#243
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#232
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#184
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#181
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#324
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91