no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 42%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 26 – WAS 23 · LAR -2.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS +5opened +4.5
WAS +2.8
5/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
50.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR +0.23 #2
WAS #30 +0.20
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR 277 #2
WAS #28 257
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR 126 #8
WAS #31 141
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR 68% #6
WAS #28 70%
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR +0.03 #7
WAS #28 +0.07
LAR
3rd downWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS 38% #22
LAR #6 36%
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS 134 #4
LAR #20 120
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR 1.1 #1
WAS #10 2.6
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
LAR
Pass attackWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS -0.01 #18
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · WAS defense
LAR 40% #16
WAS #23 42%
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS 2.0 #11
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR
Pass yardsWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS 196 #24
LAR #20 235
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS 70% #4
LAR #8 56%
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · LAR defense
WAS +0.02 #9
LAR #12 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +28
#30 +0.20
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +21
#28 +0.07
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +26
#28 257
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +23
#30 142
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#14 2.5
40% #16
3rd down
even
#23 42%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +22
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +9
WASpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
LARrun block
line +23
WASrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#194
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +8
#10 -0.07
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#20 235
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +8
#12 111
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +16
#6 36%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#44
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
WASrun block
line +16
LARrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#223
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#83
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120