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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 1 – 0 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 42% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 26 – WAS 23 · LAR -2.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS +5opened +4.5
WAS +2.8
5/10
at the line
bookWASLAR
CZR
DK
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
50.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · WAS defense OFF +28 LAR +0.23 #2 WAS #30 +0.20
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · WAS defense OFF +26 LAR 277 #2 WAS #28 257
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · WAS defense LINE +23 LAR 126 #8 WAS #31 141
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · WAS defense OFF +22 LAR 68% #6 WAS #28 70%
LAR Run gameLAR offense · WAS defense OFF +21 LAR +0.03 #7 WAS #28 +0.07
LAR 3rd downWAS offense · LAR defense DEF +16 WAS 38% #22 LAR #6 36%
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · LAR defense LINE +16 WAS 134 #4 LAR #20 120
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · WAS defense LINE +9 LAR 1.1 #1 WAS #10 2.6
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
LAR Pass attackWAS offense · LAR defense DEF +8 WAS -0.01 #18 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · WAS defense OFF +7 LAR 40% #16 WAS #23 42%
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · LAR defense LINE +7 WAS 2.0 #11 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR Pass yardsWAS offense · LAR defense DEF +4 WAS 196 #24 LAR #20 235
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · LAR defense OFF +4 WAS 70% #4 LAR #8 56%
WAS Run gameWAS offense · LAR defense OFF +3 WAS +0.02 #9 LAR #12 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

WAS DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack OFF +28 #30 +0.20
+0.03 #7 Run game OFF +21 #28 +0.07
277 #2 Pass yards OFF +26 #28 257
127 #7 Rush yards OFF +23 #30 142
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush OFF +12 #14 2.5
40% #16 3rd down even #23 42%
68% #6 Red zone OFF +22 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro line +9 WASpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#58
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
LARrun block line +23 WASrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#194
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141