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Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:25 · Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 1 – 0 NE
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q    NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 21 – NE 24 · NE -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Patriotsspread · margin, last 10
NE -1.5
NE −3.1
7/10
at the line
bookNEGB
DK
CZR
Patriotstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
GB · 6
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass attackNE offense · GB defense OFF +22 NE +0.29 #1 GB #23 +0.08
NE Run block vs frontGB offense · NE defense FRONT +15 GB 114 #21 NE #6 101
GB Red zoneGB offense · NE defense OFF +11 GB 63% #16 NE #27 69%
NE 3rd downNE offense · GB defense OFF +10 NE 44% #6 GB #16 41%
GB Pass pro vs rushNE offense · GB defense RUSH +10 NE 2.9 #24 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB 3rd downGB offense · NE defense OFF +9 GB 49% #2 NE #11 39%
NE Pass yardsGB offense · NE defense DEF +9 GB 226 #18 NE #9 207
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · GB defense LINE +9 NE 127 #6 GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
GB Pass attackGB offense · NE defense OFF +8 GB +0.23 #3 NE #11 -0.06
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NE defense LINE +8 GB 2.1 #14 NE #22 2.0
NE Red zoneNE offense · GB defense OFF +8 NE 66% #9 GB #17 64%
NE Pass yardsNE offense · GB defense OFF +6 NE 262 #4 GB #10 207
NE Run gameGB offense · NE defense DEF +4 GB -0.01 #19 NE #15 -0.03
NE Run gameNE offense · GB defense OFF +4 NE +0.01 #13 GB #17 -0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NE DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NE DEFENSE
+0.23 #3 Pass attack OFF +8 #11 -0.06
-0.01 #19 Run game even #15 -0.03
226 #18 Pass yards DEF +9 #9 207
120 #15 Rush yards DEF +9 #6 102
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #23 2.0
49% #2 3rd down OFF +9 #11 39%
63% #16 Red zone OFF +11 #27 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro line +8 NEpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Harold Landry III LB 8.5 sk#22
Dre'Mont Jones DE 7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT 3.5 sk#116
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
GBrun block front +15 NErun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Christian Barmore LDE 4.0 tfl#249
Cory Durden NT 5.0 tfl#168
Milton Williams RDE 8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB 4.0 tfl#277
Christian Elliss LILB
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101