no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 59%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 21 – NE 24 · NE -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NE -1.5
NE −3.1
7/10
—at the line
| book | NE | GB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Pass attackNE offense · GB defense
NE +0.29 #1
GB #23 +0.08
NE
Run block vs frontGB offense · NE defense
GB 114 #21
NE #6 101
GB
Red zoneGB offense · NE defense
GB 63% #16
NE #27 69%
NE
3rd downNE offense · GB defense
NE 44% #6
GB #16 41%
GB
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · GB defense
NE 2.9 #24
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
3rd downGB offense · NE defense
GB 49% #2
NE #11 39%
NE
Pass yardsGB offense · NE defense
GB 226 #18
NE #9 207
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · GB defense
NE 127 #6
GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
GB
Pass attackGB offense · NE defense
GB +0.23 #3
NE #11 -0.06
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NE defense
GB 2.1 #14
NE #22 2.0
NE
Red zoneNE offense · GB defense
NE 66% #9
GB #17 64%
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · GB defense
NE 262 #4
GB #10 207
NE
Run gameGB offense · NE defense
GB -0.01 #19
NE #15 -0.03
NE
Run gameNE offense · GB defense
NE +0.01 #13
GB #17 -0.02
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +8
#11 -0.06
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +9
#9 207
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +9
#6 102
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#23 2.0
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +9
#11 39%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +11
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +8
NEpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#22
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#116
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
GBrun block
front +15
NErun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#249
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#168
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#277
Christian Elliss LILB
—
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +22
#23 +0.08
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#10 207
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +12
#18 118
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +10
#16 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +8
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +10
GBpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#92
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#109
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
NErun block
line +9
GBrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#551
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#267
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#126
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#279
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#275
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116