Green Bay Packers
@
New England Patriots
MODEL NE 59%
Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 16:25
· Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 1 – 0 NE
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
NE OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +8
#11 -0.06
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +9
#9 207
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +9
#6 102
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#25 2.0
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +9
#11 39%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +12
#27 69%
NE OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +21
#22 +0.08
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#10 207
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +12
#18 118
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +10
#16 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +8
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.1
NE PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #11 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #15 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #11 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #11 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #11 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #11 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #22 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #17 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #22 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #22 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #22 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #22 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.