Philadelphia Eagles
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
MODEL JAC 58%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 09:30
· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 2 – 0 JAC
—
Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PHI OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
JAC OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PHI OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
DEF +10
#3 -0.14
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#19 231
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +17
#1 86
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#27 1.9
38% #21
3rd down
even
#17 41%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +23
#25 68%
JAC OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
-0.01 #18
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#6 204
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#22 124
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#12 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#22 42%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.5
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #3 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #13 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #3 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #3 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #3 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #3 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #5 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #16 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #5 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #5 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #5 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #5 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.