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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 09:30 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 2 – 0 JAX
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out    JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 58% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 21 – JAX 24 · JAX -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jaguarsspread · margin, last 10
JAX +1.5
JAC −2.5
9/10
at the line
bookJACPHI
DK
SCORE
CZR
FD
Jaguarstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5opened 44.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR
JAX · 4
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Red zonePHI offense · JAX defense OFF +23 PHI 74% #2 JAX #25 68%
JAX Run block vs frontPHI offense · JAX defense FRONT +12 PHI 119 #13 JAX #1 86
JAX Pass attackPHI offense · JAX defense DEF +10 PHI +0.04 #13 JAX #3 -0.14
PHI Pass attackJAX offense · PHI defense DEF +6 JAX +0.06 #11 PHI #5 -0.12
JAX Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · JAX defense RUSH +6 PHI 2.2 #17 JAX #11 2.6
PHI Pass yardsJAX offense · PHI defense DEF +5 JAX 237 #11 PHI #6 204
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · PHI defense LINE +5 JAX 116 #17 PHI #22 126
JAX 3rd downPHI offense · JAX defense DEF +4 PHI 38% #21 JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · PHI defense OFF +4 JAX 40% #18 PHI #22 42%
JAX Pass yardsPHI offense · JAX defense DEF +4 PHI 206 #23 JAX #19 231
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · PHI defense LINE +3 JAX 2.2 #16 PHI #19 2.1
PHI Red zoneJAX offense · PHI defense DEF +2 JAX 65% #12 PHI #10 59%
JAX Run gamePHI offense · JAX defense DEF +1 PHI +0.01 #14 JAX #13 -0.04
PHI Run gameJAX offense · PHI defense DEF +1 JAX -0.00 #17 PHI #16 -0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

JAX DEFENSE PHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PHI offense against what it runs into

PHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 JAX DEFENSE

PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.

+0.04 #13 Pass attack DEF +10 #3 -0.14
+0.01 #14 Run game even #13 -0.04
206 #23 Pass yards even #19 231
117 #18 Rush yards DEF +17 #1 86
2.1 #12 Pass pro vs rush OFF +15 #27 1.9
38% #21 3rd down even #17 41%
74% #2 Red zone OFF +23 #25 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PHIpass pro even JAXpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Hines-Allen DE 8.0 sk#28
Arik Armstead DE 5.5 sk#57
Travon Walker DE 3.5 sk#117
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
PHIrun block front +12 JAXrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Travon Walker LDE 8.0 tfl#84
Arik Armstead LDT 7.0 tfl#90
DaVon Hamilton RDT 3.0 tfl#313
Josh Hines-Allen RDE 12.0 tfl#25
Foyesade Oluokun WLB 5.0 tfl#183
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86