no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 58%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 21 – JAX 24 · JAX -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
JAX +1.5
JAC −2.5
9/10
—at the line
| book | JAC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
44.5opened 44.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
JAX · 4
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · JAX defense
PHI 74% #2
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Run block vs frontPHI offense · JAX defense
PHI 119 #13
JAX #1 86
JAX
Pass attackPHI offense · JAX defense
PHI +0.04 #13
JAX #3 -0.14
PHI
Pass attackJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX +0.06 #11
PHI #5 -0.12
JAX
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · JAX defense
PHI 2.2 #17
JAX #11 2.6
PHI
Pass yardsJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX 237 #11
PHI #6 204
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX 116 #17
PHI #22 126
JAX
3rd downPHI offense · JAX defense
PHI 38% #21
JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX 40% #18
PHI #22 42%
JAX
Pass yardsPHI offense · JAX defense
PHI 206 #23
JAX #19 231
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX 2.2 #16
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Red zoneJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX 65% #12
PHI #10 59%
JAX
Run gamePHI offense · JAX defense
PHI +0.01 #14
JAX #13 -0.04
PHI
Run gameJAX offense · PHI defense
JAX -0.00 #17
PHI #16 -0.02
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
DEF +10
#3 -0.14
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#19 231
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +17
#1 86
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#27 1.9
38% #21
3rd down
even
#17 41%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +23
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#61
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#113
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
PHIrun block
front +12
JAXrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#70
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#110
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#295
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#19
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#199
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#6 204
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#22 124
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#12 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#22 42%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#48
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#51
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#87
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
JAXrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#171
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#142
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#608
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#93
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#452
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126