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Week 5 · 2026-10-12 · 20:15 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 1 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
LAR win probability
ours 57% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 25 – LAR 27 · LAR -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -3.25opened -3.75
LAR −2.2
5/10
at the line
bookLARBUF
DK
CZR
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
53.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Run gameLAR offense · BUF defense OFF +23 LAR +0.03 #7 BUF #30 +0.09
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · BUF defense LINE +21 LAR 126 #8 BUF #29 134
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · BUF defense OFF +18 LAR 68% #6 BUF #24 68%
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · LAR defense LINE +17 BUF 151 #3 LAR #20 120
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · BUF defense LINE +12 LAR 1.1 #1 BUF #13 2.3
BUF Run gameBUF offense · LAR defense OFF +11 BUF +0.11 #1 LAR #12 -0.04
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · BUF defense OFF +8 LAR 40% #16 BUF #24 42%
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · LAR defense OFF +7 BUF 234 #13 LAR #20 235
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · BUF defense OFF +5 LAR +0.23 #2 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · LAR defense OFF +5 BUF 72% #3 LAR #8 56%
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · LAR defense OFF +4 BUF +0.16 #6 LAR #10 -0.07
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · LAR defense OFF +3 BUF 46% #3 LAR #6 36%
BUF Pass yardsLAR offense · BUF defense DEF +1 LAR 277 #2 BUF #1 170
LAR Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · LAR defense RUSH +0 BUF 2.3 #18 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LAR DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack even #10 -0.07
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +11 #12 -0.04
234 #13 Pass yards even #20 235
160 #1 Rush yards OFF +11 #12 111
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush DEF +10 #9 2.8
46% #3 3rd down even #6 36%
72% #3 Red zone even #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro even LARpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#36
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
BUFrun block line +17 LARrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#55
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#225
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#73
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120