no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
LAR win probability
ours 57%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 25 – LAR 27 · LAR -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -3.25opened -3.75
LAR −2.2
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
53.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR +0.03 #7
BUF #30 +0.09
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR 126 #8
BUF #29 134
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR 68% #6
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF 151 #3
LAR #20 120
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR 1.1 #1
BUF #13 2.3
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF +0.11 #1
LAR #12 -0.04
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR 40% #16
BUF #24 42%
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF 234 #13
LAR #20 235
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR +0.23 #2
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF 72% #3
LAR #8 56%
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF +0.16 #6
LAR #10 -0.07
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF 46% #3
LAR #6 36%
BUF
Pass yardsLAR offense · BUF defense
LAR 277 #2
BUF #1 170
LAR
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · LAR defense
BUF 2.3 #18
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +11
#12 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#20 235
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +11
#12 111
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#9 2.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#6 36%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#36
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
BUFrun block
line +17
LARrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#55
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#225
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#73
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +23
#30 +0.09
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#1 170
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +21
#28 136
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#19 2.1
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +8
#24 42%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +18
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +12
BUFpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#45
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#156
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
LARrun block
line +21
BUFrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#574
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#80
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#95
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#142
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#619
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134