Minnesota Vikings
@
New Orleans Saints
MODEL NO 48%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· Caesars Superdome (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 2 – 0 NO
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NO OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +18
#12 -0.05
-0.01 #20
Run game
DEF +18
#2 -0.07
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +25
#5 196
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#19 121
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#11 2.6
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +26
#5 36%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +25
#2 -0.15
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +25
#6 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
DEF +8
#2 178
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#4 2.9
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +16
#3 35%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +30
#2 49%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.9
NO PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #12 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #2 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #12 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #12 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #12 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #12 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #2 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #6 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #2 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #2 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #2 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #2 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.