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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 2 – 0 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 43% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 22 – NO 20 · MIN -2.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO +0
NO +2.4
6/10
at the line
bookNOMIN
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 5
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Jordan MasonRBQUESTIONABLEThumb
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays  |  with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
NO · 7
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIN Red zoneNO offense · MIN defense DEF +30 NO 50% #32 MIN #2 49%
NO 3rd downMIN offense · NO defense DEF +26 MIN 32% #31 NO #5 36%
MIN Pass attackNO offense · MIN defense DEF +25 NO -0.08 #27 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Pass pro vs rushNO offense · MIN defense RUSH +25 NO 3.2 #28 MIN #3 3.1
NO Pass yardsMIN offense · NO defense DEF +25 MIN 189 #30 NO #5 196
MIN Run gameNO offense · MIN defense DEF +25 NO -0.10 #31 MIN #6 -0.05
NO Pass attackMIN offense · NO defense DEF +18 MIN -0.19 #30 NO #12 -0.05
NO Run gameMIN offense · NO defense DEF +18 MIN -0.01 #20 NO #2 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 18
MIN 3rd downNO offense · MIN defense DEF +16 NO 40% #19 MIN #3 35%
NO Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · NO defense RUSH +16 MIN 3.4 #32 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
MIN Run block vs frontNO offense · MIN defense FRONT +16 NO 94 #30 MIN #14 116 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Pass yardsNO offense · MIN defense DEF +8 NO 237 #10 MIN #2 178
NO Red zoneMIN offense · NO defense DEF +6 MIN 61% #21 NO #15 62%
NO Run block vs frontMIN offense · NO defense FRONT +1 MIN 108 #24 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NO DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE
-0.19 #30 Pass attack DEF +18 #12 -0.05
-0.01 #20 Run game DEF +18 #2 -0.07
189 #30 Pass yards DEF +25 #5 196
108 #23 Rush yards even #19 121
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush DEF +20 #11 2.6
32% #31 3rd down DEF +26 #5 36%
61% #21 Red zone even #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro rush +16 NOpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#53
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
MINrun block even NOrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#375
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#125
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#32
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#42
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127