no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 43%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 22 – NO 20 · MIN -2.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO +0
NO +2.4
6/10
—at the line
| book | NO | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 5
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
| Jordan Mason | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Thumb |
|
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays | with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
NO · 7
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIN
Red zoneNO offense · MIN defense
NO 50% #32
MIN #2 49%
NO
3rd downMIN offense · NO defense
MIN 32% #31
NO #5 36%
MIN
Pass attackNO offense · MIN defense
NO -0.08 #27
MIN #2 -0.15
MIN
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · MIN defense
NO 3.2 #28
MIN #3 3.1
NO
Pass yardsMIN offense · NO defense
MIN 189 #30
NO #5 196
MIN
Run gameNO offense · MIN defense
NO -0.10 #31
MIN #6 -0.05
NO
Pass attackMIN offense · NO defense
MIN -0.19 #30
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Run gameMIN offense · NO defense
MIN -0.01 #20
NO #2 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 18
MIN
3rd downNO offense · MIN defense
NO 40% #19
MIN #3 35%
NO
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · NO defense
MIN 3.4 #32
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
MIN
Run block vs frontNO offense · MIN defense
NO 94 #30
MIN #14 116
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN
Pass yardsNO offense · MIN defense
NO 237 #10
MIN #2 178
NO
Red zoneMIN offense · NO defense
MIN 61% #21
NO #15 62%
NO
Run block vs frontMIN offense · NO defense
MIN 108 #24
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +18
#12 -0.05
-0.01 #20
Run game
DEF +18
#2 -0.07
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +25
#5 196
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#19 121
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#11 2.6
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +26
#5 36%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +16
NOpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#53
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
MINrun block
even
NOrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#375
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#125
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#32
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#42
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +25
#2 -0.15
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +25
#6 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
DEF +8
#2 178
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#4 2.9
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +16
#3 35%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +30
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +25
MINpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#26
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#39
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#48
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
NOrun block
front +16
MINrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#79
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#22
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116