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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 1 – 2 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 45% book 54%
35%
65%
book is 9 pts higher
projected CLE 22 – NYJ 20 · CLE -1.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ -2
NYJ +1.6
2/10
at the line
bookNYJCLE
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Jetsmoneyline · wins, last 10
54.3%
ours 45.2%
3/10
CLE−9.1 pts vs book
bookNYJCLE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

27 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CLE · 15
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Taylen GreenQBOUTCoach's Decision
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
Dylan SampsonRBQUESTIONABLEKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
11 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Noah IgbinogheneCBOUTCoach's Decision
Toriano Pride Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
Justin JeffersonLBOUTCoach's Decision
Daniel ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSDOUBTFULGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 9.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE Pass yardsNYJ offense · CLE defense DEF +29 NYJ 164 #32 CLE #3 189
CLE Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · CLE defense RUSH +26 NYJ 3.5 #29 CLE #3 3.1
CLE Pass attackNYJ offense · CLE defense DEF +24 NYJ -0.18 #28 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Run gameNYJ offense · CLE defense DEF +24 NYJ -0.06 #29 CLE #5 -0.05
CLE 3rd downNYJ offense · CLE defense DEF +19 NYJ 35% #27 CLE #8 37%
NYJ 3rd downCLE offense · NYJ defense DEF +16 CLE 34% #28 NYJ #12 39%
NYJ Pass yardsCLE offense · NYJ defense DEF +15 CLE 185 #31 NYJ #16 226
CLE Red zoneNYJ offense · CLE defense DEF +9 NYJ 53% #29 CLE #20 66%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
CLE Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · NYJ defense LINE +5 CLE 3.0 #26 NYJ #31 1.5
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · CLE defense LINE +5 NYJ 123 #10 CLE #15 116
CLE Run block vs frontCLE offense · NYJ defense LINE +2 CLE 97 #27 NYJ #29 139
CLE Red zoneCLE offense · NYJ defense OFF +1 CLE 55% #28 NYJ #29 70%
CLE Run gameCLE offense · NYJ defense OFF +1 CLE -0.05 #25 NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ Pass attackCLE offense · NYJ defense DEF +0 CLE -0.29 #32 NYJ #32 +0.25

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

NYJ DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack even #32 +0.25
-0.05 #25 Run game even #26 +0.03
185 #31 Pass yards DEF +15 #16 226
97 #27 Rush yards even #29 139
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush even #31 1.5
34% #28 3rd down DEF +16 #12 39%
55% #28 Red zone even #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro even NYJpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#108
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
CLErun block even NYJrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#148
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139