Cleveland Browns
@
New York Jets
MODEL NYJ 51%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 1 – 2 NYJ
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +15
#16 226
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +16
#12 39%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +24
#4 -0.13
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +24
#5 -0.05
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +29
#3 189
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#16 116
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +26
#3 3.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +19
#8 37%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +9
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 3.1
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #32 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #26 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #32 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #32 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #32 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #32 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #4 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #5 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #4 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #4 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #4 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #4 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.