no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 45%
book 54%
35%
65%
book is 9 pts higher
projected CLE 22 – NYJ 20 · CLE -1.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ -2
NYJ +1.6
2/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
39.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
54.3%
ours 45.2%
3/10
CLE−9.1 pts vs book
| book | NYJ | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
27 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CLE · 15
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Taylen Green | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
11 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Toriano Pride Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
| Justin Jefferson | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Daniel Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 9.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE
Pass yardsNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ 164 #32
CLE #3 189
CLE
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
CLE #3 3.1
CLE
Pass attackNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Run gameNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
CLE #5 -0.05
CLE
3rd downNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ 35% #27
CLE #8 37%
NYJ
3rd downCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE 34% #28
NYJ #12 39%
NYJ
Pass yardsCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE 185 #31
NYJ #16 226
CLE
Red zoneNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ 53% #29
CLE #20 66%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
CLE
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE 3.0 #26
NYJ #31 1.5
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · CLE defense
NYJ 123 #10
CLE #15 116
CLE
Run block vs frontCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE 97 #27
NYJ #29 139
CLE
Red zoneCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE 55% #28
NYJ #29 70%
CLE
Run gameCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE -0.05 #25
NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ
Pass attackCLE offense · NYJ defense
CLE -0.29 #32
NYJ #32 +0.25
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +15
#16 226
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +16
#12 39%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#108
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
CLErun block
even
NYJrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#148
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +24
#4 -0.13
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +24
#5 -0.05
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +29
#3 189
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#16 116
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +26
#3 3.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +19
#8 37%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +9
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +26
CLEpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#46
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#72
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
NYJrun block
even
CLErun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#87
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#102
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#35
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116