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New York Giants @ Washington Commanders ★ DIV · NFC EAST ★

Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 3 – 7 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 23 – WAS 26 · WAS -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS -2.75opened -2.25
WAS −2.9
2/10
at the line
bookWASNYG
DK
CZR
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · WAS defense LINE +26 NYG 133 #5 WAS #31 141
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · NYG defense LINE +24 WAS 134 #4 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
NYG Run gameNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +23 NYG +0.04 #5 WAS #28 +0.07
WAS Run gameWAS offense · NYG defense OFF +23 WAS +0.02 #9 NYG #32 +0.17
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · NYG defense LINE +20 WAS 2.0 #11 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · NYG defense OFF +18 WAS 70% #4 NYG #22 68%
WAS Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · WAS defense RUSH +12 NYG 2.7 #22 WAS #10 2.6
NYG Pass attackNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +11 NYG -0.01 #19 WAS #30 +0.20
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
NYG 3rd downWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +8 WAS 38% #22 NYG #14 40%
NYG Pass yardsNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +7 NYG 218 #21 WAS #28 257
NYG Pass yardsWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +7 WAS 196 #24 NYG #17 230
NYG 3rd downNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +6 NYG 40% #17 WAS #23 42%
NYG Red zoneNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +5 NYG 59% #23 WAS #28 70%
NYG Pass attackWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +2 WAS -0.01 #18 NYG #16 +0.03

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

WAS DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack OFF +11 #30 +0.20
+0.04 #5 Run game OFF +23 #28 +0.07
218 #21 Pass yards even #28 257
129 #5 Rush yards OFF +25 #30 142
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush DEF +9 #14 2.5
40% #17 3rd down even #23 42%
59% #23 Red zone even #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro rush +12 WASpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#32
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#61
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
NYGrun block line +26 WASrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#313
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#93
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#206
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#63
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#190
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141