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San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:25 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 7 – 5 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 57% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 21 – SEA 24 · SEA -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -3.75
SEA −2.2
6/10
at the line
bookSEASF
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SF · 9
Kurtis RourkeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JamesRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan WatkinsWROUTCoach's Decision
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Ephesians PrysockCBOUTCoach's Decision
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
Tatum BethuneLBOUTCoach's Decision
Enrique Cruz Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · SF defense LINE +26 SEA 1.7 #6 SF #32 0.9
SEA Run block vs frontSF offense · SEA defense FRONT +18 SF 114 #22 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · SF defense OFF +17 SEA +0.11 #8 SF #25 +0.11
SEA Run gameSF offense · SEA defense DEF +17 SF -0.00 #18 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · SF defense OFF +14 SEA 239 #9 SF #23 242
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · SF defense OFF +10 SEA 43% #10 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · SEA defense OFF +6 SF 254 #6 SEA #12 213
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · SEA defense LINE +5 SF 1.3 #2 SEA #7 2.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
SEA Red zoneSF offense · SEA defense DEF +4 SF 68% #8 SEA #4 54%
SF Red zoneSEA offense · SF defense DEF +4 SEA 62% #18 SF #14 62%
SF Run gameSEA offense · SF defense DEF +4 SEA -0.05 #26 SF #22 +0.01
SF Pass attackSF offense · SEA defense OFF +1 SF +0.16 #7 SEA #8 -0.10
SF Run block vs frontSEA offense · SF defense FRONT +1 SEA 120 #12 SF #11 110
SEA 3rd downSF offense · SEA defense DEF +0 SF 51% #1 SEA #1 33%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

SEA DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE
+0.16 #7 Pass attack even #8 -0.10
-0.00 #18 Run game DEF +17 #1 -0.15
254 #6 Pass yards even #12 213
107 #24 Rush yards DEF +21 #3 92
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush even #8 2.8
51% #1 3rd down even #1 33%
68% #8 Red zone even #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro even SEApass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
SFrun block front +18 SEArun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#96
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#322
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#49
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94