Chicago Bears
@
Green Bay Packers
DIV
MODEL GB 58%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:25
· Lambeau Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 3 – 8 GB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
GB OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +12
#22 +0.08
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +13
#17 -0.02
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#10 207
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +15
#18 118
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#19 2.1
43% #11
3rd down
even
#16 41%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#17 64%
GB OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +15
#18 +0.03
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#22 239
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +12
#27 135
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#22 2.1
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +17
#19 41%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.1
GB PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #22 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #17 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #22 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #22 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #22 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #22 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #18 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #19 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #18 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #18 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #18 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #18 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.