no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 58%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 23 – GB 26 · GB -2.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -3.25
GB −2.8
4/10
—at the line
| book | GB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CHI · 7
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Jonathan Garvin | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
GB · 7
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downGB offense · CHI defense
GB 49% #2
CHI #19 41%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · CHI defense
GB +0.23 #3
CHI #18 +0.03
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · GB defense
CHI +0.08 #10
GB #23 +0.08
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · GB defense
CHI 161 #2
GB #15 116
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · GB defense
CHI +0.08 #4
GB #17 -0.02
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · GB defense
CHI 1.5 #4
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · GB defense
CHI 66% #10
GB #17 64%
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CHI defense
GB 2.1 #14
CHI #20 2.0
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · CHI defense
GB 114 #21
CHI #27 133
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
CHI
3rd downCHI offense · GB defense
CHI 43% #11
GB #16 41%
GB
Pass yardsGB offense · CHI defense
GB 226 #18
CHI #22 239
GB
Pass yardsCHI offense · GB defense
CHI 235 #12
GB #10 207
GB
Red zoneGB offense · CHI defense
GB 63% #16
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Run gameGB offense · CHI defense
GB -0.01 #19
CHI #19 +0.00
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +13
#23 +0.08
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +13
#17 -0.02
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#10 207
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +15
#18 118
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#20 2.1
43% #11
3rd down
even
#16 41%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +10
GBpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#129
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
CHIrun block
line +13
GBrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#257
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +15
#18 +0.03
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#22 239
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +12
#27 135
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#22 2.1
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +17
#19 41%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#16
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#87
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#126
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
GBrun block
even
CHIrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#15
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#596
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#349
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#441
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#103
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133