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Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:25 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 3 – 8 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 58% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 23 – GB 26 · GB -2.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -3.25
GB −2.8
4/10
at the line
bookGBCHI
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CHI · 7
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Jonathan GarvinDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin
GB · 7
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB 3rd downGB offense · CHI defense OFF +17 GB 49% #2 CHI #19 41%
GB Pass attackGB offense · CHI defense OFF +15 GB +0.23 #3 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · GB defense OFF +13 CHI +0.08 #10 GB #23 +0.08
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · GB defense LINE +13 CHI 161 #2 GB #15 116
CHI Run gameCHI offense · GB defense OFF +13 CHI +0.08 #4 GB #17 -0.02
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · GB defense LINE +10 CHI 1.5 #4 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · GB defense OFF +7 CHI 66% #10 GB #17 64%
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CHI defense LINE +6 GB 2.1 #14 CHI #20 2.0
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · CHI defense LINE +6 GB 114 #21 CHI #27 133 Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
CHI 3rd downCHI offense · GB defense OFF +5 CHI 43% #11 GB #16 41%
GB Pass yardsGB offense · CHI defense OFF +4 GB 226 #18 CHI #22 239
GB Pass yardsCHI offense · GB defense DEF +2 CHI 235 #12 GB #10 207
GB Red zoneGB offense · CHI defense OFF +2 GB 63% #16 CHI #18 65%
CHI Run gameGB offense · CHI defense DEF +0 GB -0.01 #19 CHI #19 +0.00

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

GB DEFENSE CHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CHI offense against what it runs into

CHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

+0.08 #10 Pass attack OFF +13 #23 +0.08
+0.08 #4 Run game OFF +13 #17 -0.02
235 #12 Pass yards even #10 207
144 #3 Rush yards OFF +15 #18 118
1.4 #3 Pass pro vs rush OFF +17 #20 2.1
43% #11 3rd down even #16 41%
66% #10 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CHIpass pro line +10 GBpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
CHIrun block line +13 GBrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#257
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116