Denver Broncos
@
Los Angeles Chargers
DIV
MODEL LAC 52%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:05
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 5 – 5 LAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
LAC OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
+0.00 #16
Run game
DEF +12
#4 -0.07
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +13
#4 195
119 #16
Rush yards
DEF +8
#8 105
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#10 2.6
43% #9
3rd down
even
#4 35%
63% #16
Red zone
DEF +13
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +20
#6 -0.12
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#11 212
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +10
#2 91
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +29
#1 4.0
46% #4
3rd down
even
#2 34%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +29
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 4.0
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #9 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #4 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #9 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #9 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #9 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #9 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #6 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #10 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #6 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #6 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #6 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #6 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.