no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 21 – LAC 21 · LAC -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -2.75
LAC −0.4
6/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC 3.4 #31
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Red zoneLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC 52% #30
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass attackLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC -0.05 #26
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Run block vs frontLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC 117 #16
DEN #2 91
LAC
Pass yardsDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN 231 #17
LAC #4 195
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN 1.4 #3
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
Red zoneDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN 63% #15
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run gameDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN +0.00 #16
LAC #4 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
LAC
3rd downDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN 43% #9
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Run block vs frontDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN 119 #14
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
DEN
Pass yardsLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC 233 #15
DEN #11 212
DEN
3rd downLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC 46% #4
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Run gameLAC offense · DEN defense
LAC +0.02 #11
DEN #10 -0.04
LAC
Pass attackDEN offense · LAC defense
DEN +0.08 #9
LAC #9 -0.09
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
+0.00 #16
Run game
DEF +12
#4 -0.07
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +13
#4 195
119 #16
Rush yards
DEF +8
#8 105
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#10 2.6
43% #9
3rd down
even
#4 35%
63% #15
Red zone
DEF +12
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +12
LACpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#55
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#64
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
DENrun block
even
LACrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#319
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#170
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#185
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +20
#6 -0.12
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#11 212
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +10
#2 91
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +29
#1 4.0
46% #4
3rd down
even
#2 34%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +29
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +30
DENpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#26
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#37
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
LACrun block
front +14
DENrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#223
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#238
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#203
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#201
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#333
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91