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Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 5 – 5 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 21 – LAC 21 · LAC -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -2.75
LAC −0.4
6/10
at the line
bookLACDEN
DK
CZR
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · DEN defense RUSH +30 LAC 3.4 #31 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Red zoneLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +29 LAC 52% #30 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +20 LAC -0.05 #26 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Run block vs frontLAC offense · DEN defense FRONT +14 LAC 117 #16 DEN #2 91
LAC Pass yardsDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +13 DEN 231 #17 LAC #4 195
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LAC defense LINE +12 DEN 1.4 #3 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Red zoneDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +12 DEN 63% #15 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +12 DEN +0.00 #16 LAC #4 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
LAC 3rd downDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +5 DEN 43% #9 LAC #4 35%
LAC Run block vs frontDEN offense · LAC defense FRONT +5 DEN 119 #14 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
DEN Pass yardsLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +4 LAC 233 #15 DEN #11 212
DEN 3rd downLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +2 LAC 46% #4 DEN #2 34%
DEN Run gameLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +1 LAC +0.02 #11 DEN #10 -0.04
LAC Pass attackDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +0 DEN +0.08 #9 LAC #9 -0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

LAC DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack even #9 -0.09
+0.00 #16 Run game DEF +12 #4 -0.07
231 #17 Pass yards DEF +13 #4 195
119 #16 Rush yards DEF +8 #8 105
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +9 #10 2.6
43% #9 3rd down even #4 35%
63% #15 Red zone DEF +12 #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro line +12 LACpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#55
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#64
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
DENrun block even LACrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#268
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#319
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#170
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#185
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107