Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Dallas Cowboys
MODEL DAL 51%
Week 5 · 2026-10-08 · 20:15
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 2 – 2 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
DAL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
OFF +9
#31 +0.22
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +19
#31 +0.09
221 #19
Pass yards
OFF +13
#32 266
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#23 125
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#24 2.0
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +18
#31 48%
62% #19
Red zone
OFF +12
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +15
#20 +0.07
+0.01 #15
Run game
DEF +12
#3 -0.07
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +26
#27 255
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#18 2.2
43% #8
3rd down
even
#13 40%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +15
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.2
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #31 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #31 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #31 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #31 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #31 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #31 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #20 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #3 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #20 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #20 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #20 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #20 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.