Las Vegas Raiders
@
New England Patriots
MODEL NE 74%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 3 – 0 NE
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
NE OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +18
#11 -0.06
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +17
#15 -0.03
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +17
#9 207
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +26
#6 102
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +18
#11 39%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#27 69%
NE OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +22
#23 +0.08
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +9
#13 214
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +11
#17 117
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +24
#30 47%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.1
NE PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #11 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #15 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #11 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #11 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #11 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #11 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #23 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #14 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #23 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #23 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #23 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #23 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.