BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 3 – 0 NE
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 72% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 17 – NE 25 · NE -7.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Patriotsspread · margin, last 10
NE -8.5
NE −7.8
4/10
at the line
bookNELV
DK
CZR
Patriotstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Run block vs frontLV offense · NE defense FRONT +26 LV 83 #32 NE #6 101
NE 3rd downNE offense · LV defense OFF +24 NE 44% #6 LV #30 47%
NE Pass attackNE offense · LV defense OFF +21 NE +0.29 #1 LV #22 +0.08
NE 3rd downLV offense · NE defense DEF +18 LV 34% #29 NE #11 39%
NE Pass attackLV offense · NE defense DEF +18 LV -0.19 #29 NE #11 -0.06
LV Pass pro vs rushNE offense · LV defense RUSH +17 NE 2.9 #24 LV #7 2.8
NE Pass yardsLV offense · NE defense DEF +17 LV 195 #26 NE #9 207
NE Run gameLV offense · NE defense DEF +17 LV -0.26 #32 NE #15 -0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 17
NE Pass yardsNE offense · LV defense OFF +9 NE 262 #4 LV #13 214
NE Pass pro vs rushLV offense · NE defense RUSH +5 LV 3.2 #27 NE #22 2.0
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · LV defense LINE +5 NE 127 #6 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
NE Red zoneNE offense · LV defense OFF +2 NE 66% #9 LV #11 59%
NE Run gameNE offense · LV defense OFF +1 NE +0.01 #13 LV #14 -0.04
NE Red zoneLV offense · NE defense DEF +0 LV 56% #27 NE #27 69%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NE DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #29 Pass attack DEF +18 #11 -0.06
-0.26 #32 Run game DEF +17 #15 -0.03
195 #26 Pass yards DEF +17 #9 207
77 #32 Rush yards DEF +26 #6 102
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush DEF +9 #23 2.0
34% #29 3rd down DEF +18 #11 39%
56% #27 Red zone even #27 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro even NEpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Harold Landry III LB 8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE 7.0 sk#38
Milton Williams DT 3.5 sk#117
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
LVrun block front +26 NErun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Christian Barmore LDE 4.0 tfl#222
Cory Durden NT 5.0 tfl#175
Milton Williams RDE 8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB 4.0 tfl#255
Christian Elliss LILB
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101