no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 72%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 17 – NE 25 · NE -7.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NE -8.5
NE −7.8
4/10
—at the line
| book | NE | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Run block vs frontLV offense · NE defense
LV 83 #32
NE #6 101
NE
3rd downNE offense · LV defense
NE 44% #6
LV #30 47%
NE
Pass attackNE offense · LV defense
NE +0.29 #1
LV #22 +0.08
NE
3rd downLV offense · NE defense
LV 34% #29
NE #11 39%
NE
Pass attackLV offense · NE defense
LV -0.19 #29
NE #11 -0.06
LV
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · LV defense
NE 2.9 #24
LV #7 2.8
NE
Pass yardsLV offense · NE defense
LV 195 #26
NE #9 207
NE
Run gameLV offense · NE defense
LV -0.26 #32
NE #15 -0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 17
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · LV defense
NE 262 #4
LV #13 214
NE
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · NE defense
LV 3.2 #27
NE #22 2.0
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · LV defense
NE 127 #6
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
NE
Red zoneNE offense · LV defense
NE 66% #9
LV #11 59%
NE
Run gameNE offense · LV defense
NE +0.01 #13
LV #14 -0.04
NE
Red zoneLV offense · NE defense
LV 56% #27
NE #27 69%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +18
#11 -0.06
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +17
#15 -0.03
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +17
#9 207
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +26
#6 102
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#23 2.0
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +18
#11 39%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#38
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#117
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
LVrun block
front +26
NErun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#175
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#255
Christian Elliss LILB
—
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +21
#22 +0.08
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +9
#13 214
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +11
#17 117
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +24
#30 47%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +17
LVpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#17
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#84
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#91
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
NErun block
even
LVrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#78
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#299
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#196
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#115
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111