no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 41%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 27 – ARI 24 · DET -3.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +8.25
ARI +3.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DET · 6
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Juice Scruggs | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Blake Miller | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DET defense
ARI 3.1 #26
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
Pass attackDET offense · ARI defense
DET +0.17 #4
ARI #27 +0.15
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · ARI defense
DET 269 #3
ARI #24 243
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · DET defense
ARI 256 #5
DET #21 237
DET
Red zoneDET offense · ARI defense
DET 70% #5
ARI #21 67%
DET
Run block vs frontARI offense · DET defense
ARI 96 #28
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · ARI defense
DET 125 #10
ARI #21 120
DET
Run gameARI offense · DET defense
ARI -0.06 #28
DET #18 -0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
DET
3rd downDET offense · ARI defense
DET 39% #20
ARI #29 45%
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · ARI defense
DET 2.1 #15
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
DET
3rd downARI offense · DET defense
ARI 42% #12
DET #9 37%
DET
Pass attackARI offense · DET defense
ARI +0.00 #17
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Red zoneARI offense · DET defense
ARI 56% #26
DET #23 68%
ARI
Run gameDET offense · ARI defense
DET -0.04 #24
ARI #21 +0.01
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +23
#27 +0.15
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +21
#24 243
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +11
#25 127
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#29 1.8
39% #20
3rd down
OFF +9
#29 45%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +16
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
ARIpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#227
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
DETrun block
line +11
ARIrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#274
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#194
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#427
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#68
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +10
#18 -0.01
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +16
#21 237
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +17
#14 115
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#6 2.8
42% #12
3rd down
even
#9 37%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +24
DETpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#67
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#95
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
ARIrun block
front +16
DETrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#412
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#385
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#261
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#160
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111