Detroit Lions
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 41%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:25
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 2 – 0 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +23
#27 +0.15
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +21
#24 243
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +11
#25 127
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#29 1.8
39% #20
3rd down
OFF +9
#29 45%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +16
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +10
#18 -0.01
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +16
#21 237
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +17
#14 115
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#5 2.8
42% #12
3rd down
even
#9 37%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.8
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #27 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #21 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #27 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #27 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #27 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #27 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #14 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #18 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #14 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #14 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #14 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #14 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.