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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 16:25 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 2 – 0 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 41% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 27 – ARI 24 · DET -3.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +8.25
ARI +3.0
4/10
at the line
bookARIDET
DK
CZR
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DET defense RUSH +24 ARI 3.1 #26 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Pass attackDET offense · ARI defense OFF +23 DET +0.17 #4 ARI #27 +0.15
DET Pass yardsDET offense · ARI defense OFF +21 DET 269 #3 ARI #24 243
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · DET defense OFF +16 ARI 256 #5 DET #21 237
DET Red zoneDET offense · ARI defense OFF +16 DET 70% #5 ARI #21 67%
DET Run block vs frontARI offense · DET defense FRONT +16 ARI 96 #28 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · ARI defense LINE +11 DET 125 #10 ARI #21 120
DET Run gameARI offense · DET defense DEF +10 ARI -0.06 #28 DET #18 -0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
DET 3rd downDET offense · ARI defense OFF +9 DET 39% #20 ARI #29 45%
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · ARI defense LINE +6 DET 2.1 #15 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
DET 3rd downARI offense · DET defense DEF +3 ARI 42% #12 DET #9 37%
DET Pass attackARI offense · DET defense DEF +3 ARI +0.00 #17 DET #14 -0.01
DET Red zoneARI offense · DET defense DEF +3 ARI 56% #26 DET #23 68%
ARI Run gameDET offense · ARI defense DEF +3 DET -0.04 #24 ARI #21 +0.01

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ARI DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ARI DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +23 #27 +0.15
-0.04 #24 Run game even #21 +0.01
269 #3 Pass yards OFF +21 #24 243
120 #14 Rush yards OFF +11 #25 127
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush OFF +11 #29 1.8
39% #20 3rd down OFF +9 #29 45%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +16 #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro even ARIpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#227
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
DETrun block line +11 ARIrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#274
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#194
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#427
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#68
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120