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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 20:20 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 28% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 28 – ATL 20 · BAL -7.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +4.25
ATL +7.7
7/10
at the line
bookATLBAL
DK
CZR
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Run gameBAL offense · ATL defense OFF +23 BAL +0.10 #2 ATL #25 +0.03
BAL 3rd downATL offense · BAL defense DEF +20 ATL 34% #30 BAL #10 38%
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · BAL defense LINE +19 ATL 1.9 #9 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run gameATL offense · BAL defense DEF +16 ATL -0.03 #23 BAL #7 -0.05
ATL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · ATL defense RUSH +15 BAL 2.5 #20 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · ATL defense LINE +15 BAL 162 #1 ATL #16 116
ATL Pass yardsBAL offense · ATL defense DEF +13 BAL 193 #28 ATL #15 222
ATL Pass attackBAL offense · ATL defense DEF +11 BAL -0.04 #24 ATL #13 -0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · BAL defense OFF +9 ATL 218 #20 BAL #29 259
ATL Red zoneBAL offense · ATL defense DEF +9 BAL 60% #22 ATL #13 62%
BAL Red zoneATL offense · BAL defense DEF +6 ATL 65% #13 BAL #7 55%
BAL Run block vs frontATL offense · BAL defense FRONT +1 ATL 125 #9 BAL #8 106
ATL 3rd downBAL offense · ATL defense DEF +0 BAL 41% #15 ATL #15 40%
BAL Pass attackATL offense · BAL defense DEF +0 ATL -0.01 #21 BAL #21 +0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ATL DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack DEF +11 #13 -0.03
+0.10 #2 Run game OFF +23 #25 +0.03
193 #28 Pass yards DEF +13 #15 222
157 #2 Rush yards OFF +22 #24 126
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush DEF +19 #2 3.4
41% #15 3rd down even #15 40%
60% #22 Red zone DEF +9 #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro rush +15 ATLpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#21
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#50
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
BALrun block line +15 ATLrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#109
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#143
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#427
Kendal Daniels LILB
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116