no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 28%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 28 – ATL 20 · BAL -7.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +4.25
ATL +7.7
7/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL +0.10 #2
ATL #25 +0.03
BAL
3rd downATL offense · BAL defense
ATL 34% #30
BAL #10 38%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · BAL defense
ATL 1.9 #9
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Run gameATL offense · BAL defense
ATL -0.03 #23
BAL #7 -0.05
ATL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL 2.5 #20
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL 162 #1
ATL #16 116
ATL
Pass yardsBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL 193 #28
ATL #15 222
ATL
Pass attackBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL -0.04 #24
ATL #13 -0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · BAL defense
ATL 218 #20
BAL #29 259
ATL
Red zoneBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL 60% #22
ATL #13 62%
BAL
Red zoneATL offense · BAL defense
ATL 65% #13
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Run block vs frontATL offense · BAL defense
ATL 125 #9
BAL #8 106
ATL
3rd downBAL offense · ATL defense
BAL 41% #15
ATL #15 40%
BAL
Pass attackATL offense · BAL defense
ATL -0.01 #21
BAL #21 +0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +11
#13 -0.03
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +23
#25 +0.03
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +13
#15 222
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +22
#24 126
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#2 3.4
41% #15
3rd down
even
#15 40%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +9
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
rush +15
ATLpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#21
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
BALrun block
line +15
ATLrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#109
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#143
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#427
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +16
#7 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
OFF +9
#29 259
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#28 1.8
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +20
#10 38%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
line +19
BALpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#81
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
ATLrun block
even
BALrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#439
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#308
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#203
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106