Baltimore Ravens
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 47%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 20:20
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
ATL OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +11
#13 -0.03
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +23
#25 +0.03
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +13
#15 222
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +22
#24 126
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#2 3.4
41% #15
3rd down
even
#15 40%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +9
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +16
#7 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
OFF +9
#29 259
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +26
#30 1.8
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +20
#10 38%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 1.8
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #13 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #25 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #13 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #13 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #13 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #13 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #21 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #7 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #21 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #21 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #21 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #21 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.