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Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 7 – 3 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
TEN win probability
ours 31% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 25 – TEN 19 · HOU -6.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN +3.25
TEN +6.6
3/10
at the line
bookTENHOU
DK
CZR
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Pass attackTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +30 TEN -0.22 #31 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Run block vs frontTEN offense · HOU defense FRONT +28 TEN 91 #31 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
HOU 3rd downTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +25 TEN 32% #32 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass yardsTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +22 TEN 191 #29 HOU #7 205
HOU Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · HOU defense RUSH +20 TEN 3.2 #29 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU Run gameTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +19 TEN -0.06 #27 HOU #8 -0.05
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · TEN defense OFF +14 HOU +0.04 #15 TEN #29 +0.17
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · TEN defense LINE +13 HOU 2.0 #12 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · TEN defense OFF +12 HOU 233 #14 TEN #26 248
TEN Run gameHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +7 HOU -0.08 #30 TEN #23 +0.02
HOU Red zoneTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +4 TEN 61% #20 HOU #16 63%
TEN Run block vs frontHOU offense · TEN defense FRONT +4 HOU 111 #23 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
TEN 3rd downHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +3 HOU 38% #24 TEN #21 42%
TEN Red zoneHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +1 HOU 51% #31 TEN #30 71%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

TEN DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack OFF +14 #29 +0.17
-0.08 #30 Run game even #23 +0.02
233 #14 Pass yards OFF +12 #26 248
109 #22 Rush yards even #15 115
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
38% #24 3rd down even #21 42%
51% #31 Red zone even #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro line +13 TENpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#12
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#65
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
HOUrun block even TENrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#154
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#640
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#169
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#117
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120