no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
TEN win probability
ours 31%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 25 – TEN 19 · HOU -6.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN +3.25
TEN +6.6
3/10
—at the line
| book | TEN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Pass attackTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN -0.22 #31
HOU #1 -0.19
HOU
Run block vs frontTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN 91 #31
HOU #3 93
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
HOU
3rd downTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN 32% #32
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass yardsTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN 191 #29
HOU #7 205
HOU
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN 3.2 #29
HOU #9 2.6
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU
Run gameTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN -0.06 #27
HOU #8 -0.05
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU +0.04 #15
TEN #29 +0.17
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU 2.0 #12
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU 233 #14
TEN #26 248
TEN
Run gameHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU -0.08 #30
TEN #23 +0.02
HOU
Red zoneTEN offense · HOU defense
TEN 61% #20
HOU #16 63%
TEN
Run block vs frontHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU 111 #23
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
TEN
3rd downHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU 38% #24
TEN #21 42%
TEN
Red zoneHOU offense · TEN defense
HOU 51% #31
TEN #30 71%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +14
#29 +0.17
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#23 +0.02
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +12
#26 248
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#21 42%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
line +13
TENpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#12
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#65
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
HOUrun block
even
TENrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#154
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#640
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#169
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#117
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
HOU DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +30
#1 -0.19
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +19
#8 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +22
#7 205
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +26
#4 94
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#7 2.8
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +25
#7 37%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +20
HOUpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#21
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
TENrun block
front +28
HOUrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#141
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#208
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#62
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93