Houston Texans
@
Tennessee Titans
DIV
MODEL TEN 34%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 7 – 3 TEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
TEN OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +14
#29 +0.17
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#23 +0.01
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +12
#26 248
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#21 42%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +30
#1 -0.19
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +19
#8 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +22
#7 205
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +26
#4 94
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#7 2.8
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +25
#7 37%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.8
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #29 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #23 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #29 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #29 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #29 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #29 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #1 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #8 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #1 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #1 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #1 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #1 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.