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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 2 – 0 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA win probability
ours 48% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 25 – MIA 25 · CIN -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA +6.25
MIA +0.6
5/10
at the line
bookMIACIN
DK
CZR
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
1/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · MIA defense LINE +20 CIN 1.9 #10 MIA #30 1.8
CIN Run gameCIN offense · MIA defense OFF +19 CIN +0.02 #8 MIA #27 +0.04
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · MIA defense OFF +18 CIN 76% #1 MIA #19 66%
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · MIA defense OFF +13 CIN 44% #5 MIA #18 41%
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · CIN defense OFF +12 MIA 64% #14 CIN #26 69%
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · MIA defense OFF +11 CIN 250 #7 MIA #18 231
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · CIN defense LINE +11 MIA 115 #19 CIN #30 139
CIN Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · CIN defense RUSH +9 MIA 2.7 #21 CIN #12 2.4
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
MIA Pass attackMIA offense · CIN defense OFF +8 MIA -0.01 #20 CIN #28 +0.16
MIA Run gameMIA offense · CIN defense OFF +8 MIA -0.03 #21 CIN #29 +0.09
CIN Pass attackCIN offense · MIA defense OFF +3 CIN -0.03 #23 MIA #26 +0.13
MIA Run block vs frontCIN offense · MIA defense FRONT +3 CIN 95 #29 MIA #26 132
MIA 3rd downMIA offense · CIN defense OFF +1 MIA 35% #26 CIN #27 44%
CIN Pass yardsMIA offense · CIN defense DEF +0 MIA 195 #25 CIN #25 246

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

MIA DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

-0.03 #23 Pass attack even #26 +0.13
+0.02 #8 Run game OFF +19 #27 +0.04
250 #7 Pass yards OFF +11 #18 231
94 #29 Rush yards even #26 132
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush even #15 2.3
44% #5 3rd down OFF +13 #18 41%
76% #1 Red zone OFF +18 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro line +20 MIApass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#60
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#97
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#93
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
CINrun block even MIArun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#278
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#408
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#45
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#453
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#16
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132