no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA win probability
ours 48%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 25 – MIA 25 · CIN -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIA +6.25
MIA +0.6
5/10
—at the line
| book | MIA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN 1.9 #10
MIA #30 1.8
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN +0.02 #8
MIA #27 +0.04
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN 76% #1
MIA #19 66%
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN 44% #5
MIA #18 41%
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA 64% #14
CIN #26 69%
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN 250 #7
MIA #18 231
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA 115 #19
CIN #30 139
CIN
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA 2.7 #21
CIN #12 2.4
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
MIA
Pass attackMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA -0.01 #20
CIN #28 +0.16
MIA
Run gameMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA -0.03 #21
CIN #29 +0.09
CIN
Pass attackCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN -0.03 #23
MIA #26 +0.13
MIA
Run block vs frontCIN offense · MIA defense
CIN 95 #29
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
MIA
3rd downMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA 35% #26
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Pass yardsMIA offense · CIN defense
MIA 195 #25
CIN #25 246
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +19
#27 +0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +11
#18 231
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#26 132
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +13
#18 41%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +18
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
line +20
MIApass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#63
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#91
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#107
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
CINrun block
even
MIArun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#209
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#413
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#37
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#421
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#14
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
OFF +8
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #21
Run game
OFF +8
#29 +0.09
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#25 246
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +19
#32 147
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#24 2.0
35% #26
3rd down
even
#27 44%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +12
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
rush +9
CINpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#58
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#101
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#126
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
MIArun block
line +11
CINrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#230
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#235
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#98
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#126
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#276
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139