Cincinnati Bengals
@
Miami Dolphins
MODEL MIA 54%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 2 – 0 MIA
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
MIA OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +19
#27 +0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +11
#18 231
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#26 132
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +13
#18 41%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +18
#19 66%
MIA OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
OFF +8
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #21
Run game
OFF +8
#29 +0.09
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#25 246
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +19
#32 147
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
35% #26
3rd down
even
#27 44%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +12
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.0
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #26 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #27 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #26 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #26 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #26 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #26 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #28 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #29 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #28 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #28 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #28 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #28 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.