no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
PIT win probability
ours 57%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – PIT 26 · PIT -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT -2.25
PIT −2.5
5/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · PIT defense
IND 240 #8
PIT #30 261
IND
3rd downIND offense · PIT defense
IND 43% #7
PIT #25 43%
IND
Run gameIND offense · PIT defense
IND +0.09 #3
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
3rd downPIT offense · IND defense
PIT 41% #14
IND #26 43%
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · IND defense
PIT 1.9 #8
IND #17 2.2
PIT
Pass yardsPIT offense · IND defense
PIT 214 #22
IND #31 262
IND
Run block vs frontPIT offense · IND defense
PIT 98 #26
IND #17 117
IND
Red zonePIT offense · IND defense
PIT 66% #11
IND #5 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
IND
Pass attackIND offense · PIT defense
IND +0.06 #12
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Run block vs frontIND offense · PIT defense
IND 116 #18
PIT #13 114
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · IND defense
PIT +0.03 #16
IND #19 +0.04
PIT
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · PIT defense
IND 1.8 #7
PIT #4 3.1
IND
Red zoneIND offense · PIT defense
IND 68% #7
PIT #9 58%
IND
Run gamePIT offense · IND defense
PIT +0.02 #10
IND #9 -0.05
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +17
#20 +0.00
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +22
#30 261
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#13 113
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +18
#25 43%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
PITpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#30
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#36
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
INDrun block
even
PITrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#589
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#126
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#61
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#50
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#140
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
OFF +9
#31 262
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +19
#7 102
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +12
#26 43%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +9
INDpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#107
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#101
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
PITrun block
front +9
INDrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#137
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#182
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#60
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#26
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117