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Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 2 – 2 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
PIT win probability
ours 57% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – PIT 26 · PIT -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT -2.25
PIT −2.5
5/10
at the line
bookPITIND
DK
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Pass yardsIND offense · PIT defense OFF +22 IND 240 #8 PIT #30 261
IND 3rd downIND offense · PIT defense OFF +18 IND 43% #7 PIT #25 43%
IND Run gameIND offense · PIT defense OFF +17 IND +0.09 #3 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT 3rd downPIT offense · IND defense OFF +12 PIT 41% #14 IND #26 43%
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · IND defense LINE +9 PIT 1.9 #8 IND #17 2.2
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · IND defense OFF +9 PIT 214 #22 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontPIT offense · IND defense FRONT +9 PIT 98 #26 IND #17 117
IND Red zonePIT offense · IND defense DEF +6 PIT 66% #11 IND #5 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
IND Pass attackIND offense · PIT defense OFF +5 IND +0.06 #12 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Run block vs frontIND offense · PIT defense FRONT +5 IND 116 #18 PIT #13 114
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · IND defense OFF +3 PIT +0.03 #16 IND #19 +0.04
PIT Pass pro vs rushIND offense · PIT defense RUSH +3 IND 1.8 #7 PIT #4 3.1
IND Red zoneIND offense · PIT defense OFF +2 IND 68% #7 PIT #9 58%
IND Run gamePIT offense · IND defense DEF +1 PIT +0.02 #10 IND #9 -0.05

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

PIT DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

+0.06 #12 Pass attack even #17 +0.03
+0.09 #3 Run game OFF +17 #20 +0.00
240 #8 Pass yards OFF +22 #30 261
118 #17 Rush yards even #13 113
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush even #5 2.8
43% #7 3rd down OFF +18 #25 43%
68% #7 Red zone even #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even PITpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#30
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#36
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
INDrun block even PITrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#589
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#126
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#61
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#50
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#140
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114