Indianapolis Colts
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
MODEL PIT 53%
Week 5 · 2026-10-11 · 13:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 2 – 2 PIT
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
PIT OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +17
#20 +0.00
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +22
#30 261
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#13 113
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +18
#25 43%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
OFF +9
#31 262
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +19
#7 102
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +12
#26 43%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.3
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #17 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #20 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #17 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #17 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #17 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #17 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #19 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #9 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #19 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #19 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #19 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #19 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.