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Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 2 – 1 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out
WAS win probability
ours 42% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 24 – WAS 22 · SEA -2.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS +3.25
WAS +2.6
4/10
at the line
bookWASSEA
DK
CZR
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 4:00 PM
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
WAS · 8
Athan KaliakmanisQBOUTCoach's Decision
Luke McCaffreyWROUTCoach's Decision
Treylon BurksWROUTCoach's Decision
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Deatrich Wise Jr.DEOUTQuadriceps
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTOUTPectoral · IR
Ricky BarberDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tanoa TogiaiGOUTCoach's Decision
Laremy TunsilOTOUTTriceps · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · WAS defense OFF +22 SEA +0.11 #8 WAS #30 +0.20
SEA 3rd downWAS offense · SEA defense DEF +21 WAS 38% #22 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · WAS defense OFF +19 SEA 239 #9 WAS #28 257
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · WAS defense LINE +18 SEA 120 #12 WAS #30 142
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · WAS defense OFF +13 SEA 43% #10 WAS #23 42%
SEA Pass yardsWAS offense · SEA defense DEF +12 WAS 196 #24 SEA #12 213
SEA Pass attackWAS offense · SEA defense DEF +10 WAS -0.01 #18 SEA #8 -0.10
SEA Red zoneSEA offense · WAS defense OFF +10 SEA 62% #18 WAS #28 70%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SEA Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · SEA defense RUSH +8 WAS 2.2 #15 SEA #7 2.8
SEA Run gameWAS offense · SEA defense DEF +8 WAS +0.02 #9 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · WAS defense LINE +6 SEA 1.7 #6 WAS #12 2.5
SEA Run gameSEA offense · WAS defense OFF +2 SEA -0.05 #26 WAS #28 +0.07
SEA Red zoneWAS offense · SEA defense DEF +0 WAS 70% #4 SEA #4 54%
SEA Run block vs frontWAS offense · SEA defense FRONT +0 WAS 135 #4 SEA #4 94

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

WAS DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack OFF +22 #30 +0.20
-0.05 #26 Run game even #28 +0.07
239 #9 Pass yards OFF +19 #28 257
123 #11 Rush yards OFF +19 #30 142
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
43% #10 3rd down OFF +13 #23 42%
62% #18 Red zone OFF +10 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro even WASpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#31
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#32
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#59
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
SEArun block line +18 WASrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#317
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#119
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#179
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#63
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#185
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142