no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out
WAS win probability
ours 42%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 24 – WAS 22 · SEA -2.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS +3.25
WAS +2.6
4/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 4:00 PM
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
WAS · 8
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Treylon Burks | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deatrich Wise Jr. | DE | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | DT | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Ricky Barber | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanoa Togiai | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Laremy Tunsil | OT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA +0.11 #8
WAS #30 +0.20
SEA
3rd downWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS 38% #22
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA 239 #9
WAS #28 257
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA 120 #12
WAS #30 142
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA 43% #10
WAS #23 42%
SEA
Pass yardsWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS 196 #24
SEA #12 213
SEA
Pass attackWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS -0.01 #18
SEA #8 -0.10
SEA
Red zoneSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA 62% #18
WAS #28 70%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SEA
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS 2.2 #15
SEA #7 2.8
SEA
Run gameWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS +0.02 #9
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA 1.7 #6
WAS #12 2.5
SEA
Run gameSEA offense · WAS defense
SEA -0.05 #26
WAS #28 +0.07
SEA
Red zoneWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS 70% #4
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Run block vs frontWAS offense · SEA defense
WAS 135 #4
SEA #4 94
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +22
#30 +0.20
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +19
#28 257
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +19
#30 142
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +13
#23 42%
62% #18
Red zone
OFF +10
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#31
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#32
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#59
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
SEArun block
line +18
WASrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#317
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#119
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#179
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#63
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#185
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +10
#8 -0.10
+0.02 #9
Run game
DEF +8
#1 -0.15
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +12
#12 213
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#3 92
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +21
#1 33%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
rush +8
SEApass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#41
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#50
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
WASrun block
even
SEArun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#114
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#316
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#40
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94