Seattle Seahawks
@
Washington Commanders
BOOK WAS 36%
MODEL WAS 35%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Northwest Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 2 – 1 WAS
SEA -3.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SEA OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
WAS OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SEA OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +22
#30 +0.20
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +19
#28 257
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +19
#30 142
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +13
#23 42%
62% #18
Red zone
OFF +10
#28 70%
WAS OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +10
#8 -0.10
+0.02 #9
Run game
DEF +8
#1 -0.15
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +12
#12 213
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#3 92
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +21
#1 33%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.8
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #30 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #28 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #30 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #30 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #30 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #30 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #8 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #1 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #8 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #8 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #8 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #8 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.