Cincinnati Bengals
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
DIV
BOOK PIT 47%
MODEL PIT 60%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 5 – 5 PIT
CIN -1.5
Vegas line (context)
47.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +12
#20 +0.00
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +23
#30 261
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +16
#13 113
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#6 2.8
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +20
#25 43%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +8
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +12
#28 +0.16
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +19
#29 +0.09
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#25 246
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#32 147
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#23 2.0
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +13
#27 44%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +15
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.0
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #17 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #20 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #17 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #17 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #17 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #17 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #28 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #29 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #28 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #28 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #28 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #28 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.