Los Angeles Chargers
@
Buffalo Bills
BOOK BUF 58%
MODEL BUF 63%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 1 BUF
BUF -3.0
Vegas line (context)
48.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAC OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
BUF OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAC OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +19
#7 -0.11
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +19
#30 +0.09
233 #15
Pass yards
DEF +14
#1 170
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +16
#28 136
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#20 2.1
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +20
#24 42%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#4 -0.07
234 #13
Pass yards
DEF +9
#4 195
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#10 2.6
46% #3
3rd down
even
#4 35%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#3 52%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.6
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #7 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #30 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #7 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #7 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #7 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #7 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #9 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #4 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #9 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #9 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #9 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #9 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.