Tennessee Titans
@
New York Giants
BOOK NYG 60%
MODEL NYG 63%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 NYG
NYG -3.0
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TEN OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
NYG OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TEN OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +15
#16 +0.03
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#32 +0.17
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +12
#17 230
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#31 145
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#17 2.2
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +18
#14 40%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +10
#29 +0.17
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +18
#23 +0.01
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#26 248
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +10
#15 115
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#14 2.5
40% #17
3rd down
even
#21 42%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#30 71%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 2.5
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #16 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #32 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #16 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #16 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #16 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #16 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #29 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #23 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #29 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #29 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #29 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #29 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.