Arizona Cardinals
@
San Francisco 49ers
DIV
BOOK SF 82%
MODEL SF 68%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 16:05
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 4 – 6 SF
SF -11.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
SF OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +8
#25 +0.11
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +18
#23 242
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +20
#11 108
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +8
#20 41%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +12
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +20
#27 +0.15
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +18
#24 243
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#25 127
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#29 1.8
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +28
#29 45%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +13
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 1.8
SF PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #25 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #22 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #25 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #25 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #25 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #25 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #27 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #21 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #27 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #27 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #27 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #27 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.