Philadelphia Eagles
@
Chicago Bears
BOOK CHI 52%
MODEL CHI 52%
Week 3 · 2026-09-28 · 20:15
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 1 CHI
CHI -1.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PHI OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
CHI OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PHI OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#22 239
117 #18
Rush yards
OFF +9
#27 135
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#22 2.1
38% #21
3rd down
even
#19 41%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +16
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +12
#16 -0.02
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#6 204
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +19
#22 124
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#12 2.5
43% #11
3rd down
OFF +11
#22 42%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.5
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #18 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #19 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #18 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #18 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #18 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #18 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #5 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #16 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #5 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #5 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #5 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #5 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.