Baltimore Ravens
@
Dallas Cowboys
BOOK DAL 45%
MODEL DAL 40%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 16:25
· Maracana Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 DAL
BAL -2.5
Vegas line (context)
51.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
DAL OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#31 +0.22
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +29
#31 +0.09
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#32 266
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +21
#23 125
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +16
#31 48%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +9
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +16
#21 +0.07
+0.01 #15
Run game
DEF +8
#7 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +28
#29 259
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#30 1.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#10 38%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +10
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 1.8
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #31 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #31 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #31 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #31 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #31 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #31 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #21 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #7 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #21 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #21 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #21 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #21 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.