no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out
DAL win probability
ours 37%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 28 – DAL 24 · BAL -4.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL +2.5
DAL +4.2
4/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
51.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
DAL · 8
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL +0.10 #2
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL 279 #1
BAL #29 259
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL 162 #1
DAL #25 131
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL 1.5 #5
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL 41% #15
DAL #31 48%
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL +0.16 #5
BAL #21 +0.07
BAL
Red zoneDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL 62% #17
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Red zoneBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL 60% #22
DAL #31 72%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BAL
Run gameDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL +0.01 #15
BAL #7 -0.05
BAL
Pass attackBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL -0.04 #24
DAL #31 +0.22
BAL
Pass yardsBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL 193 #28
DAL #32 266
BAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL 119 #12
BAL #8 106
BAL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · DAL defense
BAL 2.5 #20
DAL #23 2.0
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · BAL defense
DAL 43% #8
BAL #10 38%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#31 +0.22
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +29
#31 +0.09
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#32 266
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +21
#23 125
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +16
#31 48%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +9
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#33
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#61
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
BALrun block
line +24
DALrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#39
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#340
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#156
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#111
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#586
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +16
#21 +0.07
+0.01 #15
Run game
DEF +8
#7 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +28
#29 259
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#28 1.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#10 38%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +10
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +23
BALpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#49
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#85
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
DALrun block
even
BALrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#363
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#56
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#353
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#168
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106