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Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 16:25 · Maracana Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman    DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out
DAL win probability
ours 37% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 28 – DAL 24 · BAL -4.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL +2.5
DAL +4.2
4/10
at the line
bookDALBAL
SCORE
CZR
DK
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
51.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
SCORE
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Run gameBAL offense · DAL defense OFF +29 BAL +0.10 #2 DAL #31 +0.09
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · BAL defense OFF +28 DAL 279 #1 BAL #29 259
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · DAL defense LINE +24 BAL 162 #1 DAL #25 131
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · BAL defense LINE +23 DAL 1.5 #5 BAL #28 1.8
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · DAL defense OFF +16 BAL 41% #15 DAL #31 48%
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · BAL defense OFF +16 DAL +0.16 #5 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL Red zoneDAL offense · BAL defense DEF +10 DAL 62% #17 BAL #7 55%
BAL Red zoneBAL offense · DAL defense OFF +9 BAL 60% #22 DAL #31 72%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BAL Run gameDAL offense · BAL defense DEF +8 DAL +0.01 #15 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Pass attackBAL offense · DAL defense OFF +7 BAL -0.04 #24 DAL #31 +0.22
BAL Pass yardsBAL offense · DAL defense OFF +4 BAL 193 #28 DAL #32 266
BAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · BAL defense FRONT +4 DAL 119 #12 BAL #8 106
BAL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · DAL defense LINE +3 BAL 2.5 #20 DAL #23 2.0
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · BAL defense OFF +2 DAL 43% #8 BAL #10 38%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

DAL DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack even #31 +0.22
+0.10 #2 Run game OFF +29 #31 +0.09
193 #28 Pass yards even #32 266
157 #2 Rush yards OFF +21 #23 125
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush even #25 2.0
41% #15 3rd down OFF +16 #31 48%
60% #22 Red zone OFF +9 #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro even DALpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#33
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#61
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
BALrun block line +24 DALrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#39
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#340
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#156
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#111
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#586
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131