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Week 3 · 2026-09-24 · 20:15 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 0 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 78% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 18 – GB 28 · GB -10.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -7.25
GB −10.3
1/10
at the line
bookGBATL
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
GB · 7
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB 3rd downATL offense · GB defense DEF +14 ATL 34% #30 GB #16 41%
GB 3rd downGB offense · ATL defense OFF +13 GB 49% #2 ATL #15 40%
GB Pass attackGB offense · ATL defense OFF +10 GB +0.23 #3 ATL #13 -0.03
GB Pass yardsATL offense · GB defense DEF +10 ATL 218 #20 GB #10 207
ATL Pass pro vs rushGB offense · ATL defense RUSH +9 GB 2.1 #14 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · GB defense LINE +6 ATL 125 #9 GB #15 116
GB Run gameATL offense · GB defense DEF +6 ATL -0.03 #23 GB #17 -0.02
GB Run gameGB offense · ATL defense OFF +6 GB -0.01 #19 ATL #25 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · GB defense LINE +5 ATL 1.9 #9 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
ATL Run block vs frontGB offense · ATL defense FRONT +5 GB 114 #21 ATL #16 116
ATL Red zoneATL offense · GB defense OFF +4 ATL 65% #13 GB #17 64%
ATL Pass yardsGB offense · ATL defense DEF +3 GB 226 #18 ATL #15 222
ATL Red zoneGB offense · ATL defense DEF +3 GB 63% #16 ATL #13 62%
ATL Pass attackATL offense · GB defense OFF +2 ATL -0.01 #21 GB #23 +0.08

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

GB DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack even #23 +0.08
-0.03 #23 Run game even #17 -0.02
218 #20 Pass yards DEF +10 #10 207
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +10 #18 118
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #20 2.1
34% #30 3rd down DEF +14 #16 41%
65% #13 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro even GBpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
ATLrun block even GBrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#257
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116