no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 78%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 18 – GB 28 · GB -10.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -7.25
GB −10.3
1/10
—at the line
| book | GB | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
GB · 7
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downATL offense · GB defense
ATL 34% #30
GB #16 41%
GB
3rd downGB offense · ATL defense
GB 49% #2
ATL #15 40%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · ATL defense
GB +0.23 #3
ATL #13 -0.03
GB
Pass yardsATL offense · GB defense
ATL 218 #20
GB #10 207
ATL
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · ATL defense
GB 2.1 #14
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · GB defense
ATL 125 #9
GB #15 116
GB
Run gameATL offense · GB defense
ATL -0.03 #23
GB #17 -0.02
GB
Run gameGB offense · ATL defense
GB -0.01 #19
ATL #25 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · GB defense
ATL 1.9 #9
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
ATL
Run block vs frontGB offense · ATL defense
GB 114 #21
ATL #16 116
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · GB defense
ATL 65% #13
GB #17 64%
ATL
Pass yardsGB offense · ATL defense
GB 226 #18
ATL #15 222
ATL
Red zoneGB offense · ATL defense
GB 63% #16
ATL #13 62%
ATL
Pass attackATL offense · GB defense
ATL -0.01 #21
GB #23 +0.08
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +10
#10 207
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +10
#18 118
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#20 2.1
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +14
#16 41%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#129
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
ATLrun block
even
GBrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#257
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +10
#13 -0.03
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#15 222
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +9
#24 126
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#2 3.4
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +13
#15 40%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
rush +9
ATLpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
GBrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116