Atlanta Falcons
@
Green Bay Packers
BOOK GB 75%
MODEL GB 63%
Week 3 · 2026-09-24 · 20:15
· Lambeau Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 0 GB
GB -7.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
GB OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +10
#10 207
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +10
#18 118
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#19 2.1
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +14
#16 41%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#17 64%
GB OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +10
#13 -0.03
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#15 222
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +9
#24 126
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#2 3.4
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +13
#15 40%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 3.4
GB PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #22 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #17 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #22 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #22 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #22 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #22 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #13 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #25 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #13 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #13 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #13 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #13 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.