Los Angeles Rams
@
Denver Broncos
BOOK DEN 42%
MODEL DEN 49%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 20:20
· Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 1 – 0 DEN
LAR -3.0
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAR OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAR OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +9
#11 212
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#2 91
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
even
#1 4.0
40% #16
3rd down
DEF +14
#2 34%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#1 48%
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#20 235
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#9 2.8
43% #9
3rd down
even
#6 36%
63% #16
Red zone
DEF +8
#8 56%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.8
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 4.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #6 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #10 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #6 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #6 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #6 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #6 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #10 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #12 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #10 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #10 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #10 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #10 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.