Las Vegas Raiders
@
New Orleans Saints
BOOK NO 63%
MODEL NO 63%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 16:25
· Caesars Superdome (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 1 – 1 NO
NO -3.5
Vegas line (context)
42.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
NO OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +17
#12 -0.05
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +30
#2 -0.07
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +21
#5 196
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +13
#19 121
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#11 2.6
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +24
#5 36%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +12
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +17
#14 -0.04
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#13 214
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +11
#17 117
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +11
#30 47%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +21
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.1
NO PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #12 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #2 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #12 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #12 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #12 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #12 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #23 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #14 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #23 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #23 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #23 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #23 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.